Countryman Amanda M, de Menezes Taís C, Pendell Dustin L, Rushton Jonathan, Marsh Thomas L
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2024 Dec 31;19(12):e0310268. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0310268. eCollection 2024.
The burden of animal disease is widespread globally and is especially severe for developing countries dependent on livestock production. Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa and the second-largest human population on the continent. Ethiopia is one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa; however, much of the population still lives in extreme poverty, and most households depend on agriculture. Animal disease negatively affects domestic livestock production and limits growth potential across the domestic agricultural supply chain. This research investigates the economic effects of livestock disease burden in Ethiopia by employing a computable general equilibrium model in tandem with animal health loss estimates from a compartmental livestock population model. Two scenarios for disease burden are simulated to understand the effects of improved animal health on domestic production, prices, trade, gross domestic product (GDP), and economic welfare in Ethiopia. Results show that improved animal health may increase Ethiopian GDP by up to 3.6%, which improves national welfare by approximately $US 2.5 billion. This research illustrates the economic effects of improved livestock health, which is critical for Ethiopian households and the national economy.
动物疾病的负担在全球范围内广泛存在，对于依赖畜牧生产的发展中国家而言尤为严重。埃塞俄比亚拥有非洲最大的牲畜存栏量以及该大陆第二多的人口。埃塞俄比亚是非洲经济增长最快的国家之一；然而，该国大部分人口仍生活在极端贫困之中，且大多数家庭依赖农业为生。动物疾病对国内畜牧生产产生负面影响，并限制了整个国内农业供应链的增长潜力。本研究通过运用可计算一般均衡模型并结合来自分区牲畜种群模型的动物健康损失估计，来调查埃塞俄比亚牲畜疾病负担的经济影响。模拟了两种疾病负担情景，以了解改善动物健康对埃塞俄比亚国内生产、价格、贸易、国内生产总值（GDP）和经济福利的影响。结果表明，改善动物健康可能使埃塞俄比亚的GDP增长高达3.6%，这将使国家福利提高约25亿美元。本研究阐明了改善牲畜健康的经济影响，这对埃塞俄比亚家庭和国民经济至关重要。
