Escribe Célia, Vivier Lucas
CIRED-CNRS, Nogent sur Marne, France.
CMAP, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jan 2;16(1):49. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-55427-z.
The low uptake of low-carbon heating systems across Europe has prompted authorities to consider more ambitious measures, including a complete ban on the installation of new fossil fuel boilers. In this analysis, we simulate the impacts of introducing this ban in France under 11,664 scenarios covering major uncertainties. We find that the ban induces major changes in the energy system, leading to efficiency gains. Additionally, we find that the ban increases the likelihood of reaching carbon neutrality while reducing total system cost in over 75% of scenarios. Finally, we show that the implementation of the ban, when coupled with the existing subsidy framework, mitigates inequalities among owner-occupied households but generates adverse effects for those in privately rented homes.
整个欧洲低碳供暖系统的低采用率促使当局考虑采取更具雄心的措施，包括全面禁止安装新的化石燃料锅炉。在本分析中，我们在涵盖主要不确定性的11664种情景下模拟了在法国实施该禁令的影响。我们发现，该禁令引发了能源系统的重大变化，带来了效率提升。此外，我们发现该禁令增加了实现碳中和的可能性，同时在超过75%的情景中降低了系统总成本。最后，我们表明，该禁令的实施与现有的补贴框架相结合时，减轻了自有住房家庭之间的不平等，但对私人租赁住房家庭产生了不利影响。
