UNEP-DTU Partnership, Marmorvej 51, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.
IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Nat Commun. 2022 Jun 2;13(1):3077. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-29890-5.
Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today's global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario.
建筑物在向低碳能源系统过渡和实现《巴黎协定》气候目标方面发挥着关键作用。分析不同社会经济背景下建筑脱碳的潜在情景是制定国家和跨国路线图以实现全球减排目标的关键步骤。本研究整合了四大洲 32 个国家的建筑存量能源模型，以创建 2050 年的碳减排参考情景和脱碳情景，涵盖了当今全球建筑排放量的 60%。将这些脱碳途径与全球模型进行了比较。结果表明，参考情景在所有国家都不足以实现大量脱碳，并且在一些地区导致排放量显著增加，例如中国和南美洲。脱碳情景在 2°C 情景预测范围内导致了大量的碳减排，但仍不足以实现 1.5°C 情景下的脱碳目标。
