Pye Steve, Bradshaw Michael, Price James, Zhang Dan, Kuzemko Caroline, Sharples Jack, Welsby Dan, Dodds Paul E
UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jan 4;16(1):386. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-55697-7.
Recent years have seen unprecedented shifts in global natural gas trade, precipitated in large part by Russia's war on Ukraine. How this regional conflict impacts the future of natural gas markets is subject to three interconnected factors: (i) Russia's strategy to regain markets for its gas exports; (ii) Europe's push towards increased liquified natural gas (LNG) and the pace of its low carbon transition; and (iii) China's gas demand and how it balances its climate and energy security objectives. A scenario modelling approach is applied to explore the potential implications of this geopolitical crisis. We find that Russia struggles to regain pre-crisis gas export levels, with the degrees of its success contingent on China's strategy. Compared to 2020, Russia's gas exports are down by 31-47% in 2040 where new markets are limited and by 13-38% under a pivot to Asia strategy. We demonstrate how integrating energy geopolitics and modelling enhances our understanding of energy futures.
近年来，全球天然气贸易发生了前所未有的变化，这在很大程度上是由俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争引发的。这场地区冲突如何影响天然气市场的未来，取决于三个相互关联的因素：（i）俄罗斯恢复其天然气出口市场的战略；（ii）欧洲对增加液化天然气（LNG）的推动及其低碳转型的速度；（iii）中国的天然气需求以及它如何平衡其气候和能源安全目标。本文采用情景建模方法来探讨这场地缘政治危机的潜在影响。我们发现，俄罗斯难以恢复到危机前的天然气出口水平，其成功程度取决于中国的战略。与2020年相比，在新市场有限的情况下，到2040年俄罗斯的天然气出口将下降31%-47%；而在转向亚洲战略的情况下，其出口将下降13%-38%。我们展示了将能源地缘政治与建模相结合如何增强我们对能源未来的理解。
