Lu Huaye, Han Lei, Wu Peihong, Liu Xin, Jiang Qingtao
Institute of Occupational Disease Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jiangsu Provincial Academy of Preventive Medicine), Nanjing, China.
Department of Clinical Medicine, Jiangsu Health Vocational College, Nanjing, China.
Front Med (Lausanne). 2024 Dec 20;11:1497597. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2024.1497597. eCollection 2024.
Nickel is a well-established carcinogen, and China stands as a significant producer of nickel compounds. Nickel-associated lung cancer is increasingly acknowledged as a pressing public health concern. This study presents a comprehensive analysis at temporal, spatial, and population levels utilizing the most recent data from GBD 2019 to estimate the disease burden of nickel-associated lung cancer from 1990 to 2019, and make predictions to 2035.
We delineated data on nickel-associated lung cancer concerning mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) over a 30-year period based on the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to identify temporal changes and to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) as well as the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for each trend segment. The Nordpred model was employed to elaborate on ASRs trends from 1990 to 2019, along with projections for the subsequent 15 years.
In both China and globally, the mortality rate from nickel-associated lung cancer and the associated DALYs have increased by 145.8, 77.8, 120.2, and 64.6%, respectively. ASRs within Chinese and global populations exhibit a pattern characterized by an initial increase followed by a decrease as age progresses, with males higher than females. The trend for DALY indicates an initial rise followed by a decline, peaking in the year 2027.
The age structure of nickel-associated lung cancer patients shows an aging trend, and the ASDR in the Chinese population indicates a potential upward trend when projecting the disease burden of nickel-associated lung cancer over the next 15 years. We should place greater emphasis on the implementation of preventive strategies and the enhancement of the quality of life for current sufferers.
镍是一种公认的致癌物，中国是镍化合物的重要生产国。镍相关肺癌日益被视为一个紧迫的公共卫生问题。本研究利用全球疾病负担研究（GBD）2019的最新数据，在时间、空间和人群层面进行全面分析，以估计1990年至2019年镍相关肺癌的疾病负担，并对2035年进行预测。
我们根据全球疾病负担（GBD）2019，划定了30年间镍相关肺癌的死亡率、伤残调整生命年（DALY）和年龄标准化率（ASR）的数据。采用Joinpoint回归分析来确定时间变化，并估计每个趋势段的年度百分比变化（APC）以及平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）。利用Nordpred模型阐述1990年至2019年的ASR趋势以及随后15年的预测。
在中国和全球，镍相关肺癌的死亡率和相关DALY分别增加了145.8%、77.8%、120.2%和64.6%。中国和全球人群的ASR呈现出随年龄增长先上升后下降的模式，男性高于女性。DALY的趋势表明先上升后下降，在2027年达到峰值。
镍相关肺癌患者的年龄结构呈老龄化趋势，中国人群的ASDR表明，在预测未来15年镍相关肺癌的疾病负担时可能呈上升趋势。我们应更加重视预防策略的实施以及提高当前患者的生活质量。
