Jager Justin, Xia Yan, Putnick Diane L, Bornstein Marc H
T. Denny Sanford School of Social and Family Dynamics, Arizona State University.
Department of Educational Psychology, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Dev Psychol. 2025 Jan 9. doi: 10.1037/dev0001890.
Due to its heavy reliance on convenience samples (CSs), developmental science has a generalizability problem that clouds its broader applicability and frustrates replicability. The surest solution to this problem is to make better use, where feasible, of probability samples, which afford clear generalizability. Because CSs that are homogeneous on one or more sociodemographic factor may afford a clearer generalizability than heterogeneous CSs, the use of homogeneous CSs instead of heterogeneous CSs may also help mitigate this generalizability problem. In this article, we argue why homogeneous CSs afford clearer generalizability, and we formally test this argument via Monte Carlo simulations. For illustration, our simulations focused on sampling bias in the sociodemographic factors of ethnicity and socioeconomic status and on the outcome of adolescent academic achievement. Monte Carlo simulations indicated that homogeneous CSs (particularly those homogeneous on multiple sociodemographic factors) reliably produce estimates that are appreciably less biased than heterogeneous CSs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that these reductions in estimate bias generalize to estimates of means and estimates of association (e.g., correlations) although reductions in estimate bias were more muted for associations. The increased employment of homogeneous CSs (particularly those homogeneous on multiple sociodemographic factors) instead of heterogeneous CSs would appreciably improve the generalizability of developmental research. Broader implications for replicability and the study of minoritized populations, considerations for application, and suggestions for sampling best practices are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).
由于严重依赖便利样本(CSs),发展科学存在一个普遍性问题,这使其更广泛的适用性蒙上阴影,并阻碍了可重复性。解决这个问题最可靠的方法是在可行的情况下更好地利用概率样本,概率样本具有明确的普遍性。因为在一个或多个社会人口因素上同质的便利样本可能比异质便利样本具有更明确的普遍性,所以使用同质便利样本而非异质便利样本也可能有助于缓解这个普遍性问题。在本文中,我们阐述了为什么同质便利样本具有更明确的普遍性,并通过蒙特卡罗模拟正式检验了这一论点。为了说明,我们的模拟聚焦于种族和社会经济地位等社会人口因素中的抽样偏差以及青少年学业成绩这一结果。蒙特卡罗模拟表明,同质便利样本(尤其是那些在多个社会人口因素上同质的样本)可靠地产生的估计偏差明显小于异质便利样本。敏感性分析表明,估计偏差的这些减少适用于均值估计和关联估计(如相关性),尽管关联估计的偏差减少更为微弱。更多地使用同质便利样本(尤其是那些在多个社会人口因素上同质的样本)而非异质便利样本将显著提高发展研究的普遍性。本文还讨论了对可重复性和少数群体研究的更广泛影响、应用方面的考虑以及抽样最佳实践的建议。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c)2025美国心理学会,保留所有权利)