van de Schoot Rens, Kaplan David, Denissen Jaap, Asendorpf Jens B, Neyer Franz J, van Aken Marcel A G
Utrecht University.
North-West University.
Child Dev. 2014 May-Jun;85(3):842-860. doi: 10.1111/cdev.12169. Epub 2013 Oct 9.
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided.
贝叶斯统计方法在应用研究和基础研究中越来越受欢迎。在本研究中，对贝叶斯分析进行了简要介绍。阐述了在何种情况下使用贝叶斯估计具有吸引力，以及如何正确解释结果。首先，通过一个简化的例子介绍了贝叶斯方法的基本要素。此后，讨论了先验知识设定的优点和陷阱。为了说明本研究中解释的贝叶斯方法，在第二个例子中考虑了一系列检验动态互动主义理论框架的研究。在讨论部分，回顾了使用贝叶斯统计的优缺点，并提供了关于如何报告贝叶斯统计的指南。
