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2019冠状病毒病对结核病、耐多药结核病、儿童结核病及合并感染艾滋病毒的结核病流行趋势的时间模式及影响：十年趋势分析

Temporal pattern and effect of COVID-19 on the trend of TB, DRTB, paediatrics TB and TB with HIV Coinfection: A decadal trend analysis.

作者信息

Bairwa Pushpendra, Verma Mahesh C, Kumari Asha, Gupta Ajay, Singh Yamini

机构信息

Department of Community Medicine, Sawai Maan Singh Medical College Jaipur, Rajasthan, India.

EIS Officer, Department of Epidemiology, National Centre for Disease Control, Delhi, India.

出版信息

J Family Med Prim Care. 2024 Dec;13(12):5555-5561. doi: 10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_466_24. Epub 2024 Dec 9.

DOI:10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_466_24
PMID:39790781
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11709054/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

India shares 2/3 of global TB burden. MDR and HIV coinfections are the main obstacle in achieving the successful TB control because it decrease the therapy effect.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the long-term trends of incidence of tuberculosis cases and identify any differences between actual and projected cases after the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODOLOGY

A retrolective study was conducted in SMS medical college, Jaipur, and data were extracted from state TB cell and annual report published by central TB division. A multiplicative model was used for conducting time series analysis. The projected yearly number of cases were estimated using the line of best fit based on the least square method.

RESULT

An increasing trend in the incidence of TB was observed, rising from 1,517,363 in 2008 to 2,404,815 in 2019. Similarly, DRTB also showed an increasing trend from 10,267 (0.67% of total new cases) in 2011 to 66,255 (2.75%) in 2019. The new cases of DRTB in 2020 were significantly lower than the projected number. The trend of HIV coinfection in TB cases fluctuated over the past decade.

CONCLUSION

The findings reveal a concerning upward trajectory in TB incidence and DRTB cases over the decade. The fluctuating trend in HIV coinfection in TB cases emphasizes the complexity of addressing these interconnected health challenges.

摘要

背景

印度承担着全球三分之二的结核病负担。耐多药结核病与艾滋病病毒合并感染是成功控制结核病的主要障碍，因为它会降低治疗效果。

目的

分析结核病病例发病率的长期趋势，并确定2019冠状病毒病大流行后实际病例与预测病例之间的差异。

方法

在斋浦尔的SMS医学院进行了一项回顾性研究，数据从邦结核病防治小组和中央结核病防治司发布的年度报告中提取。使用乘法模型进行时间序列分析。基于最小二乘法，利用最佳拟合线估计每年的预测病例数。

结果

观察到结核病发病率呈上升趋势，从2008年的1517363例增至2019年的2404815例。同样，耐多药结核病也呈上升趋势，从2011年的10267例（占新发病例总数的0.67%）增至2019年的66255例（占2.75%）。2020年耐多药结核病新病例数显著低于预测数。过去十年中，结核病病例中艾滋病病毒合并感染的趋势有所波动。

结论

研究结果显示，在过去十年中，结核病发病率和耐多药结核病病例呈令人担忧的上升趋势。结核病病例中艾滋病病毒合并感染的波动趋势凸显了应对这些相互关联的健康挑战的复杂性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/91e68e7c9257/JFMPC-13-5555-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/b68b2bf8a3f7/JFMPC-13-5555-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/9aeb09096df8/JFMPC-13-5555-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/757e30ac77ba/JFMPC-13-5555-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/1da61220ab01/JFMPC-13-5555-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/2221a5745367/JFMPC-13-5555-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/01d55677d8a1/JFMPC-13-5555-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/91e68e7c9257/JFMPC-13-5555-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/b68b2bf8a3f7/JFMPC-13-5555-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/9aeb09096df8/JFMPC-13-5555-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/757e30ac77ba/JFMPC-13-5555-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/1da61220ab01/JFMPC-13-5555-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/2221a5745367/JFMPC-13-5555-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/01d55677d8a1/JFMPC-13-5555-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bec1/11709054/91e68e7c9257/JFMPC-13-5555-g007.jpg

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