Wang Haoyu, Xie Yang, Xue Wenbo, Yan Gang, Lei Yu, Wang Jinnan
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China; Center of Environmental Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Co-control, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing, 100041, China.
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Feb;374:123964. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123964. Epub 2025 Jan 9.
China is concurrently facing the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change. Here, we established a coupled modeling framework that integrated a chemical transport model with a health impact assessment model and the human capital method, to quantify the contributions of 150 emission sources (five sectors in 30 provinces) to the CO emissions, and the mortality burdens attributed to O and PM. We found that, in 2019, the estimated premature deaths in China attributed to PM and O pollution were 1,499,073 and 143,420, respectively. The social cost of air pollution was approximately 232 billion USD (PM: 212 billion USD, O: 20 billion USD), comparable to the social cost of CO emissions at 246 billion USD. The social costs of air pollution and carbon emissions attributable to the 150 emission sources exhibited significant heterogeneity. We identified the control priorities and primary control targets for each emission source. Consequently, based on the social costs of air pollution and climate impact, we proposed a synergistic emission control policy that accounted for spatial distribution and sectoral categories. This policy aimed to harmonize the control strategies for PM pollution, O pollution, and CO emissions, thereby enhancing the comprehensive benefits of mitigation measures. Our study sheds light on optimizing emission control policies, enhancing the realism of relevant policy-making for synergistic control of air pollution and carbon emissions.
中国同时面临空气污染和气候变化的双重挑战。在此，我们建立了一个耦合建模框架，该框架将化学传输模型与健康影响评估模型以及人力资本方法相结合，以量化150个排放源（30个省份的五个部门）对一氧化碳排放的贡献，以及归因于臭氧和细颗粒物的死亡负担。我们发现，2019年，中国估计因细颗粒物和臭氧污染导致的过早死亡人数分别为1499073人和143420人。空气污染的社会成本约为2320亿美元（细颗粒物：2120亿美元，臭氧：200亿美元），与一氧化碳排放的社会成本2460亿美元相当。150个排放源造成的空气污染和碳排放的社会成本表现出显著的异质性。我们确定了每个排放源的控制重点和主要控制目标。因此，基于空气污染和气候影响的社会成本，我们提出了一项考虑空间分布和部门类别的协同排放控制政策。该政策旨在协调细颗粒物污染、臭氧污染和一氧化碳排放的控制策略，从而提高减排措施的综合效益。我们的研究为优化排放控制政策提供了启示，增强了空气污染和碳排放协同控制相关决策的现实性。
