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Predicting Postoperative Lung Cancer Recurrence and Survival Using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression and Machine Learning.

作者信息

Pu Lucy, Dhupar Rajeev, Meng Xin

机构信息

Department of Bioengineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.

Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC 27109, USA.

出版信息

Cancers (Basel). 2024 Dec 26;17(1):33. doi: 10.3390/cancers17010033.


DOI:10.3390/cancers17010033
PMID:39796664
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11719023/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Surgical resection remains the standard treatment for early-stage lung cancer. However, the recurrence rate after surgery is unacceptably high, ranging from 30% to 50%. Despite extensive efforts, accurately predicting the likelihood and timing of recurrence remains a significant challenge. This study aims to predict postoperative recurrence by identifying novel image biomarkers from preoperative chest CT scans. METHODS: A cohort of 309 patients was selected from 512 non-small-cell lung cancer patients who underwent lung resection. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was employed to identify risk factors associated with recurrence and was compared with machine learning (ML) methods for predictive performance. The goal is to improve the ability to predict the risk and time of recurrence in seemingly "cured" patients, enabling personalized surveillance strategies to minimize lung cancer recurrence. RESULTS: The Cox hazards analyses identified surgical procedure, TNM staging, lymph node involvement, body composition, and tumor characteristics as significant determinants of recurrence risk, both for local/regional and distant recurrence, as well as recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) ( < 0.05). ML models and Cox models exhibited comparable predictive performance, with an area under the receiver operative characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) ranging from 0.75 to 0.77. CONCLUSIONS: These promising findings demonstrate the feasibility of predicting postoperative lung cancer recurrence and survival time using preoperative chest CT scans. However, further validation using larger, multisite cohort is necessary to ensure robustness and facilitate integration into clinical practice for improved cancer management.

摘要

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引用本文的文献

[1]
Big data-driven machine learning: transforming multi-omics lung cancer research.

Discov Oncol. 2025-5-24

[2]
Development and validation of machine learning models based on molecular features for estimating the probability of multiple primary lung carcinoma versus intrapulmonary metastasis in patients presenting multiple non-small cell lung cancers.

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[3]
Reply to Okura et al. Comment on "Pu et al. Predicting Postoperative Lung Cancer Recurrence and Survival Using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression and Machine Learning. 2025, , 33".

Cancers (Basel). 2025-2-21

[4]
Comment on Pu et al. Predicting Postoperative Lung Cancer Recurrence and Survival Using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression and Machine Learning. 2025, , 33.

Cancers (Basel). 2025-2-19

本文引用的文献

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[2]
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