Weber Eartha, Downward George, Pinho Maria G M, Van Vuuren Detlef P
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Department Population Health Sciences, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Sustain Earth. 2023;6(1):15. doi: 10.1186/s42055-023-00064-5. Epub 2023 Dec 5.
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and System Dynamic Models (SDMs) are starting to incorporate representations of the impact of environmental changes on health and socio-economic development into their modelling frameworks. We use this brief review to provide an overview of how health and well-being are currently represented in IAMs and SDMs. A grey literature search on 12 selected model host websites and their corresponding Wiki pages was conducted. Model descriptions, coverage and publications were then tabulated. Additional potential determinants related to health were then suggested based on emerging environmental health literature. Based on these tabulations, it was determined that many individual health outcomes are not represented and thus not analyzed. Social well-being is not represented at all. Additionally, potentially health relevant determinants such as chemical or metal exposure and water pollution are rarely represented in models. Most models have representations of climate, outdoor air pollution and food availability. Air pollution was the most analyzed determinant, especially in relation to its respiratory effects. We suggest that future modelers incorporate more representations of environmental determinants influencing health, and to analyze all available determinants in relation to a wider array of health outcomes. Perhaps, if and when broader determinants of health are represented in IAMs and SDMs, then a composite of these determinants could be used to determine a population's ability to achieve elements that also contribute to social well-being.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42055-023-00064-5.
综合评估模型（IAMs）和系统动力学模型（SDMs）开始将环境变化对健康和社会经济发展的影响纳入其建模框架。我们通过这篇简短综述概述健康和福祉在IAMs和SDMs中的当前呈现方式。对12个选定模型的宿主网站及其相应的维基页面进行了灰色文献检索。然后将模型描述、覆盖范围和出版物制成表格。随后根据新出现的环境卫生文献提出了与健康相关的其他潜在决定因素。基于这些表格，确定许多个体健康结果未被呈现，因此未被分析。社会福祉根本未被呈现。此外，化学物质或金属暴露以及水污染等潜在的健康相关决定因素在模型中很少被呈现。大多数模型都有气候、室外空气污染和食物供应的呈现。空气污染是分析最多的决定因素，尤其是与其对呼吸系统的影响相关。我们建议未来的建模者纳入更多影响健康的环境决定因素的呈现，并针对更广泛的健康结果分析所有可用的决定因素。也许，如果IAMs和SDMs中呈现了更广泛的健康决定因素，那么这些决定因素的综合可以用来确定人群实现也有助于社会福祉的要素的能力。
在线版本包含可在10.1186/s42055 - 023 - 00064 - 5获取的补充材料。
