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基于情景分析和模糊决策方法的低影响开发综合效益评估

Comprehensive benefits evaluation of low impact development using scenario analysis and fuzzy decision approach.

作者信息

Ni Ting, Zhang Xiaohong, Leng Peng, Pelling Mark, Xu Jiuping

机构信息

Business School, Sichuan University, 610059, Chengdu, China.

College of Environment and Civil Engineering, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 17;15(1):2227. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-85763-z.

Abstract

The comprehensive benefit evaluation of LID based on multi-criteria decision-making methods faces technical issues such as the uncertainties and vagueness in hybrid information sources, which can affect the overall evaluation results and ranking of alternatives. This study introduces a multi-indicator fuzzy comprehensive benefit evaluation approach for the selection of LID measures, aiming to provide a robust and holistic framework for evaluating their benefits at the community level. The proposed methodology integrates quantitative environmental and economic indicators with qualitative social benefit indicators, combining the use of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and ArcGIS for scenario-based analysis, and the use of hesitant fuzzy language sets and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for decision-making. The framework's novelty lies in the integration of the hesitant fuzzy weighted average algorithm to handle subjective uncertainties in expert judgment and the incorporation of multi-return period scenarios to enhance the robustness of the evaluation. The comprehensive benefits of 26 LID configurations were conducted in Chenglong Road Subdistrict under five rainfall return period scenarios of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years. The results show that LID measures, particularly combinations of sunken green spaces and permeable paving, offer significant reductions in runoff and peak flow, along with improved flood mitigation across multiple return periods. Additionally, this study identifies practical LID implementation priorities for local decision-makers. The relative closeness is influenced by the indicators and non-calibrated parameters. However, it overall does not affect the main trends and key insights derived. The robustness of the proposed approach is reinforced by four key aspects: the impact of the Thiessen polygon method in ArcGIS, the influence of composite runoff coefficient and iterative optimization in SWMM, the effect of hesitant fuzzy linguistic sets and TOPSIS on weight calculation, and the contribution of simulations under different return periods to stability analysis.

摘要

基于多准则决策方法的低影响开发(LID)综合效益评价面临着混合信息源中的不确定性和模糊性等技术问题,这可能会影响整体评价结果和备选方案的排序。本研究引入了一种用于选择LID措施的多指标模糊综合效益评价方法,旨在为在社区层面评估其效益提供一个稳健且全面的框架。所提出的方法将定量的环境和经济指标与定性的社会效益指标相结合,结合使用暴雨洪水管理模型(SWMM)和ArcGIS进行基于情景的分析,并使用犹豫模糊语言集和逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)进行决策。该框架的新颖之处在于集成了犹豫模糊加权平均算法来处理专家判断中的主观不确定性,并纳入了多重现期情景以增强评价的稳健性。在成龙路街道针对26种LID配置在5年、10年、20年、50年和100年五个降雨重现期情景下进行了综合效益评估。结果表明,LID措施,特别是下沉式绿地和透水铺装的组合,能显著减少径流和峰值流量,并在多个重现期内改善洪水缓解情况。此外,本研究为地方决策者确定了实际的LID实施优先级。相对贴近度受指标和未校准参数的影响。然而,总体上并不影响得出的主要趋势和关键见解。所提出方法的稳健性通过四个关键方面得到加强:ArcGIS中泰森多边形法的影响、SWMM中综合径流系数和迭代优化的影响、犹豫模糊语言集和TOPSIS对权重计算的影响以及不同重现期模拟对稳定性分析的贡献。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d3ed/11742056/115d46cf98e4/41598_2025_85763_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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