Species Distribution Models Reveal Varying Degrees of Refugia From the Invasive Asian Needle Ant for Native Ants Versus Ant-Plant Seed Dispersal Mutualisms.

The Asian Needle Ant, (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), has spread throughout a substantial portion of the southeastern United States where it has primarily been restricted to low elevations. We focused on the . invasion in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP). Records in and near the park represent some of the highest elevation locations of . in North America. The goals of this study were to characterize the status of the . invasion in GSMNP, to assess the role that disturbance and human visitation play in . invasion within GSMNP, to identify the potential of . to spread into higher elevations in the park and the southern Appalachians and to determine the impact that this might have on native species, including keystone seed-dispersers within the complex and their myrmecochorous plants. We surveyed GSMNP for . at 45 sites, including sites that were burned during the 2016 Gatlinburg fire, sites with high human visitation, and undisturbed sites. We then built species distribution models (SDMs) for . and some of the native species that . is most likely to impact. This allowed us to assess the potential for high-elevation refugia within the southern Appalachians. We did not find . at any undisturbed sites in GSMNP. We did find . at five high-visitation sites. Field findings were consistent with our SDMs, which suggested that GSMNP's unique precipitation regimes may act as a barrier to invasion. Unfortunately, SDMs indicated moderate suitability for . across a sizable proportion of the northern border of the park. This is a region where . may have disproportionate impacts on myrmecochorous plant species. Thus, although southern Appalachian precipitation and temperature regimes may provide a refuge from . at high elevations, this will not protect all species likely to be impacted by this invasive ant.