Assessing the Colorectal Cancer Landscape: A Comprehensive Exploration of Future Trends in 216 Countries and Territories from 2021 to 2040.

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) has become a significant global concern, presenting formidable challenges to healthcare systems and leading to substantial healthcare expenses. This study examines the projected prevalence and trends of CRC worldwide, encompassing 21 regions and 195 nations.

METHODS

We employed an illness-death model (IDM) in order to forecast the anticipated prevalence of CRC by the year 2040. To accomplish this, we utilized data retrieved from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) query tool spanning from 1990 to 2021. The primary objective of this study is to furnish sex-specific estimations encompassing various geographical regions.

RESULTS

By 2040, the global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of CRC among the total population is projected to rise, reaching 145.82 per 100,000, which reflects an increase of 8.15%. East Asia is forecasted to have the highest ASPR at 330.17 per 100,000, representing a substantial rise of 94.81%. Notably, the most rapid percentage increase is projected in Andean Latin America, with an anticipated rise of 106.2%. In contrast, many countries, particularly in developed nations, are expected to see a decline in ASPR during this period. The United Arab Emirates is projected to experience the most significant decrease in ASPR, at -86.51%, while Mauritius is anticipated to have the largest increase in CRC prevalence rate, at 226.26%. Globally and regionally, the ASPR among males is expected to remain higher than that among females over the next 21 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The global prevalence of CRC is increasing, particularly in developing countries, while developed countries are anticipated to observe a declining trend. This highlights the significance of appropriately allocating resources and implementing effective preventive measures, especially in developing nations.