Kniffka Maxi S, Schöley Jonas, Lee Susie, Bertens Loes C M, Been Jasper V, Gunnarsdóttir Jóhanna
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Social Demography, Rostock, Germany.
Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Erasmus MC Sophia Children's Hospital, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Eur J Public Health. 2025 Apr 1;35(2):319-327. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckae214.
Stillbirth rates have stalled or increased in some European countries during the last decade. We investigate to what extent time-trends and between-country differences in stillbirth rates are explained by the changing prevalence of advanced maternal age and teenage pregnancies or multiple births. We analysed data on stillbirths and live births by maternal age and multiplicity from 2010 to 2021 in 25 European countries using Kitagawa decomposition to separate rate differences into compositional and rate components. Rates significantly decreased in six countries, but increased in two. Changes in maternal age structure reduced national stillbirth rates by a maximum of 0.04 per 1000 in the Netherlands and increased rates by up to 0.85 in Cyprus. Changes in the prevalence of multiple births decreased rates by up to 0.19 in the Netherlands and increased rates by up to 0.01 across multiple countries. Maternal age differences explained between 0.11 of the below-European average stillbirth rate in Belgium and 0.13 of the above-average rate in Ireland. Excluding Cyprus, differences in multiple births explained between 0.05 of the below-average rate in Malta and 0.03 of the above-average rate in Ireland. For most countries, the increase in advanced-age pregnancies contributed to rising stillbirth rates over time, while reductions in multiples led to decreases in rates. However, large parts of the trends remain unexplained by those factors. By 2021, neither factor explained the differences between countries, due to increased compositional uniformity and declining stillbirth risk for advanced maternal age.
在过去十年中,一些欧洲国家的死产率停滞不前或有所上升。我们研究了高龄产妇、青少年怀孕或多胞胎发生率的变化在多大程度上解释了死产率的时间趋势和国家间差异。我们分析了2010年至2021年期间25个欧洲国家按产妇年龄和生育次数划分的死产和活产数据,使用北川分解法将率差分为构成部分和率部分。六个国家的率显著下降,但两个国家的率上升。产妇年龄结构的变化使荷兰的全国死产率每1000例最多降低0.04例,塞浦路斯的率最多提高0.85例。多胞胎发生率的变化使荷兰的率最多降低0.19例,多个国家的率最多提高0.01例。产妇年龄差异在比利时低于欧洲平均死产率的0.11中得到解释,在爱尔兰高于平均率的0.13中得到解释。排除塞浦路斯后,多胞胎差异在马耳他低于平均率的0.05中得到解释,在爱尔兰高于平均率的0.03中得到解释。对于大多数国家来说,高龄怀孕的增加导致死产率随时间上升,而多胞胎的减少导致率下降。然而,这些因素仍无法解释大部分趋势。到2021年,由于构成一致性增加和高龄产妇死产风险下降,这两个因素都无法解释国家间的差异。