Health state assessment method for complex system based on multiexpert joint belief rule base.

The health of complex systems continues to decline as they operate over long periods of time, so it is important to assess the health state of complex systems. Belief rule base (BRB) is widely used in the field of health state assessment of complex systems as a semi-quantitative method that can address uncertainty effectively and with interpretability. In practical engineering, BRB still has problems: the incompleteness of expert knowledge and the inconsistency of the cognitive abilities of each expert have an effect on the construction of the model and interpretability. To address this problem, a complex system health state assessment method is proposed based on a joint multiexpert belief rule base (BRB-ME). Experts first build their own models, and a new multiexpert knowledge fusion algorithm is designed for the fusion of different expert models. The ER is used as the inference machine for the model. Next, a multi-population evolution whale optimization algorithm with multiexpert knowledge constraints (C-MEWOA) is used to optimize the BRB-ME model. Finally, the effectiveness of the BRB-ME model in health state assessment is verified through case studies of lithium-ion batteries and flywheels. Comparative studies have shown that the BRB-ME model can fuse multiexpert knowledge and has advantages in terms of the stability and accuracy of assessment results.