Interpretable machine learning-based prediction of 28-day mortality in ICU patients with sepsis: a multicenter retrospective study.

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a major cause of mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) and continues to pose a significant global health challenge, with sepsis-related deaths contributing substantially to the overall burden on healthcare systems worldwide. The primary objective was to construct and evaluate a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting 28-day all-cause mortality among ICU sepsis patients.

METHODS

Data for the study was sourced from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) (version 2.0). The main outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality. Predictor selection for the final model was conducted using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and the Boruta feature selection algorithm. Five machine learning algorithms including logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), and light gradient boosting machine (lightGBM) were employed to construct models using 10-fold cross-validation. Model performance was evaluated using AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, recall, and F1 score. Additionally, we performed an interpretability analysis on the model that showed the most stable performance.

RESULTS

The final study cohort comprised 4564 patients, among whom 568 (12.4%) died within 28 days of ICU admission. The XGBoost algorithm demonstrated the most reliable performance, achieving an AUC of 0.821, balancing sensitivity (0.703) and specificity (0.798). The top three risk predictors of mortality included APACHE score, serum lactate levels, and AST.

CONCLUSION

ML models reliably predicted 28-day mortality in critically ill sepsis patients. Of the models evaluated, the XGBoost algorithm exhibited the most stable performance in identifying patients at elevated mortality risk. Model interpretability analysis identified crucial predictors, potentially informing clinical decisions for sepsis patients in the ICU.