Guo Jiayu, Cheng Hongtao, Wang Zicheng, Qiao Mengmeng, Li Jing, Lyu Jun
Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
School of Public Health, Shannxi University of Chinese Medicine, Xianyang, China.
Front Neurol. 2023 Dec 14;14:1290117. doi: 10.3389/fneur.2023.1290117. eCollection 2023.
OBJECTIVE: Sepsis-associated encephalopathy (SAE) is strongly linked to a high mortality risk, and frequently occurs in conjunction with the acute and late phases of sepsis. The objective of this study was to construct and verify a predictive model for mortality in ICU-dwelling patients with SAE. METHODS: The study selected 7,576 patients with SAE from the MIMIC-IV database according to the inclusion criteria and randomly divided them into training ( = 5,303, 70%) and internal validation ( = 2,273, 30%) sets. According to the same criteria, 1,573 patients from the eICU-CRD database were included as an external test set. Independent risk factors for ICU mortality were identified using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) software, and prediction models were constructed and verified using the validation set. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the model. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach was applied to determine the Shapley values for specific patients, account for the effects of factors attributed to the model, and examine how specific traits affect the output of the model. RESULTS: The survival rate of patients with SAE in the MIMIC-IV database was 88.6% and that of 1,573 patients in the eICU-CRD database was 89.1%. The ROC of the XGBoost model indicated good discrimination. The AUCs for the training, test, and validation sets were 0.908, 0.898, and 0.778, respectively. The impact of each parameter on the XGBoost model was depicted using a SHAP plot, covering both positive (acute physiology score III, vasopressin, age, red blood cell distribution width, partial thromboplastin time, and norepinephrine) and negative (Glasgow Coma Scale) ones. CONCLUSION: A prediction model developed using XGBoost can accurately predict the ICU mortality of patients with SAE. The SHAP approach can enhance the interpretability of the machine-learning model and support clinical decision-making.
目的:脓毒症相关脑病(SAE)与高死亡风险密切相关,且常与脓毒症的急性期和后期同时发生。本研究的目的是构建并验证重症监护病房(ICU)中SAE患者死亡率的预测模型。 方法:本研究根据纳入标准从MIMIC-IV数据库中选取7576例SAE患者,并将其随机分为训练集(n = 5303,70%)和内部验证集(n = 2273,30%)。按照相同标准,将来自eICU-CRD数据库的1573例患者纳入作为外部测试集。使用极端梯度提升(XGBoost)软件确定ICU死亡率的独立危险因素,并使用验证集构建和验证预测模型。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线及曲线下面积(AUC)评估模型的区分能力。应用SHapley加性解释(SHAP)方法确定特定患者的Shapley值,解释模型中各因素的影响,并研究特定特征如何影响模型输出。 结果:MIMIC-IV数据库中SAE患者的生存率为88.6%,eICU-CRD数据库中1573例患者的生存率为89.1%。XGBoost模型的ROC曲线显示出良好的区分度。训练集、测试集和验证集的AUC分别为0.908、0.898和0.778。使用SHAP图描绘了每个参数对XGBoost模型的影响,涵盖了正向(急性生理评分III、血管加压素、年龄、红细胞分布宽度、活化部分凝血活酶时间和去甲肾上腺素)和负向(格拉斯哥昏迷量表)参数。 结论:使用XGBoost开发的预测模型能够准确预测SAE患者的ICU死亡率。SHAP方法可提高机器学习模型的可解释性,并支持临床决策。
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