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利用最大熵模型评估气候变化对亚洲栖息地适宜性的影响。

Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Asia Habitat Suitability of Using the MaxEnt Model.

作者信息

Yang Fengrong, Liu Quanwei, Yang Junyi, Liu Biyu, Deng Xinqi, Gan Tingjiang, Liao Xue, Li Xiushan, Xu Danping, Zhuo Zhihang

机构信息

College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China.

Engineering Research Centre of Chuanxibei Rural Human Settlement (RHS) Construction, Mianyang Teachers' College, Mianyang 621016, China.

出版信息

Insects. 2025 Jan 14;16(1):79. doi: 10.3390/insects16010079.

Abstract

Butterflies are highly sensitive to climate change, and , as an endangered butterfly species, is also affected by these changes. To enhance the conservation of and effectively plan its protected areas, it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of climate change on its distribution. This study utilized a MaxEnt model in combination with ArcGIS technology to predict the global potential suitable habitats of under current and future climate conditions, using the species' distribution data and relevant environmental variables. The results indicated that the MaxEnt model provided a good prediction accuracy for the distribution of . Under the current climate scenario, the species is primarily distributed in tropical regions, with high suitability areas concentrated in tropical rainforest climates. In future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for in medium and high suitability categories generally show an expansion trend, which increases over time. Especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, by the 2090s, the area of high suitability for is projected to increase by 42.85%. The analysis of key environmental factors revealed that precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16) was the most significant environmental factor affecting the distribution of . The species has high demands for precipitation and temperature and can adapt to future climate warming. This study is valuable for identifying the optimal conservation areas for and provides a reference for future conservation efforts.

摘要

蝴蝶对气候变化高度敏感,作为一种濒危蝴蝶物种,也受到这些变化的影响。为加强对该物种的保护并有效规划其保护区,了解气候变化对其分布的潜在影响至关重要。本研究利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)结合ArcGIS技术,使用该物种的分布数据和相关环境变量,预测当前和未来气候条件下该物种在全球的潜在适宜栖息地。结果表明,最大熵模型对该物种的分布具有良好的预测准确性。在当前气候情景下,该物种主要分布在热带地区,高适宜性区域集中在热带雨林气候区。在未来气候情景下,该物种中高适宜性类别的适宜栖息地面积总体呈扩大趋势,且随时间增加。特别是在SSP5-8.5情景下,到2090年代,该物种高适宜性区域面积预计将增加42.85%。关键环境因素分析表明,最湿润季度降水量(Bio16)是影响该物种分布的最重要环境因素。该物种对降水和温度要求较高,能够适应未来气候变暖。本研究对于确定该物种的最佳保护区具有重要价值,并为未来的保护工作提供了参考。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fa8c/11766371/7be68edf1bb4/insects-16-00079-g001.jpg

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