Merzah Mohammed
Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary.
Department of Community Health, Technical Institute of Karbala, Al-Furat Al-Awsat Technical University, Kufa, Iraq.
BMC Public Health. 2025 Jan 29;25(1):374. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-21080-w.
Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become a major public health concern in Iraq, playing a significant role in the country's morbidity and mortality rates. To offer a thorough overview of the patterns and the overall impact of NCDs on public health, this study aims to map the trends in the incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of NCDs in Iraq between 2003 and 2021.
Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 were utilized. The focus was on Iraq from 2003 to 2021, a period marked by significant social and political changes. Using the GBD results tool, age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates (ASPR, ASIR, ASMR) for 12 major NCDs were extracted and expressed per 100,000 population. Descriptive statistics with 95% uncertainty intervals were calculated, and trends were analyzed.
The analysis revealed a nuanced trajectory of NCDs in Iraq between 2003 and 2021. The ASPR of all NCDs increased slightly (change %: 0.1, 95% UI: -2.2 to 2.4), with a notable decline in chronic respiratory diseases (change %: -14.4, 95% UI: (-30.9 to 6.1) and a significant rise in neoplasms (change %: 32.7, 95% UI: -5.9 to 81.3). The ASIR of diabetes and kidney diseases showed the largest increase (change %: 42.9, 95% UI: 28.4 to 59.3), while chronic respiratory diseases had the greatest decline (change %: -12.1, 95% UI: -36.8 to 22.5). Cardiovascular diseases remained the leading cause of mortality in both sexes, with ASMRs increasing slightly for males and decreasing for females over the period. Skin and subcutaneous diseases showed the highest increase in ASMR (change %: 48.2), while digestive diseases experienced the largest decline (change %: -21.4).
The GBD 2021 study highlights progress in reducing NCD mortality in Iraq, especially among younger people. However, older males still face high death rates from cardiovascular diseases. Rising cases of cancer, diabetes, and kidney diseases signal the need for targeted interventions. Continued focus on risk factors and healthcare access is essential.
非传染性疾病（NCDs）已成为伊拉克主要的公共卫生问题，在该国的发病率和死亡率中起着重要作用。为了全面概述非传染性疾病的模式及其对公共卫生的总体影响，本研究旨在描绘2003年至2021年伊拉克非传染性疾病的发病率、患病率和死亡率趋势。
利用了《2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究》的数据。重点关注2003年至2021年的伊拉克，这一时期经历了重大的社会和政治变革。使用GBD结果工具，提取了12种主要非传染性疾病的年龄标准化患病率、发病率和死亡率（ASPR、ASIR、ASMR），并以每10万人口表示。计算了具有95%不确定性区间的描述性统计数据，并分析了趋势。
分析揭示了2003年至2021年伊拉克非传染性疾病的细微变化轨迹。所有非传染性疾病的年龄标准化患病率略有上升（变化百分比：0.1，95%不确定区间：-2.2至2.4），慢性呼吸道疾病显著下降（变化百分比：-14.4，95%不确定区间：（-30.9至6.1），肿瘤显著上升（变化百分比：32.7，95%不确定区间：-5.9至81.3）。糖尿病和肾脏疾病的年龄标准化发病率上升幅度最大（变化百分比：42.9，95%不确定区间：28.4至59.3），而慢性呼吸道疾病下降幅度最大（变化百分比：-12.1，95%不确定区间：-36.8至22.5）。心血管疾病仍然是男女死亡的主要原因，在此期间男性的年龄标准化死亡率略有上升，女性则下降。皮肤和皮下疾病的年龄标准化死亡率上升幅度最高（变化百分比：48.2），而消化系统疾病下降幅度最大（变化百分比：-21.4）。
《2021年全球疾病负担》研究突出了伊拉克在降低非传染性疾病死亡率方面取得的进展，尤其是在年轻人中。然而，老年男性仍然面临心血管疾病的高死亡率。癌症、糖尿病和肾脏疾病病例的增加表明需要有针对性的干预措施。持续关注风险因素和医疗服务可及性至关重要。
