Fine Keenan S, Bay Caroline C, Wirth Peter J, Shaffrey Ellen C, Edalatpour Armin, Thornton Sarah M, Rao Venkat K
Aesthet Surg J Open Forum. 2024 Dec 11;7:ojae121. doi: 10.1093/asjof/ojae121. eCollection 2025.
Macroeconomic conditions significantly affect consumer spending patterns, including aesthetic surgery expenditures. This study examines the longitudinal relationship between unemployment rates, disposable income, stock indices, and aesthetic surgery spending from 2006 to 2019. Data on aesthetic surgery expenditures were collected from the American Society of Plastic Surgeons, whereas unemployment data were obtained from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, disposable income from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and stock indices from the Federal Reserve Economic Data. Time series correlational analyses and Granger causality tests were used to explore these relationships. Unemployment was inversely related to total aesthetic surgery expenditures and most individual procedures. However, Granger causality tests did not reveal a significant predictive relationship between unemployment and aesthetic procedure spending for most procedures. Disposable income was most strongly associated with expenditures on injection procedures and had nonsignificant relationships with more invasive procedures, including breast augmentation, liposuction, abdominoplasty, and blepharoplasty. The analysis demonstrated a significant positive relationship between the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones with all aesthetic procedures, except rhinoplasty. Granger causality tests revealed significant predictive relationships for several procedures at different lags using disposable income and stock indices as predictive variables. These findings highlight a nuanced relationship between macroeconomic conditions and consumer spending on aesthetic surgery. Overall, this paper provides new insights offering a foundation for further investigation into aesthetic plastic surgery consumption on an individual level, rather than on an aggregate.
LEVEL OF EVIDENCE 5: (Risk).
宏观经济状况会显著影响消费者的消费模式，包括美容手术支出。本研究考察了2006年至2019年失业率、可支配收入、股票指数与美容手术支出之间的纵向关系。美容手术支出数据来自美国整形外科医师协会，而失业数据来自美国劳工统计局，可支配收入来自美国经济分析局，股票指数来自美联储经济数据。采用时间序列相关分析和格兰杰因果检验来探究这些关系。失业率与美容手术总支出及大多数单项手术呈负相关。然而，格兰杰因果检验并未显示出大多数手术的失业与美容手术支出之间存在显著的预测关系。可支配收入与注射类手术支出关联最为紧密，与包括隆胸、抽脂、腹部整形和眼睑整形在内的侵入性更强的手术无显著关系。分析表明，纳斯达克指数、标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数与除隆鼻手术外的所有美容手术均呈显著正相关。格兰杰因果检验显示，以可支配收入和股票指数作为预测变量，在不同滞后期对几种手术存在显著的预测关系。这些发现凸显了宏观经济状况与消费者美容手术支出之间的细微关系。总体而言，本文提供了新的见解，为进一步在个体层面而非总体层面研究美容整形手术消费奠定了基础。
证据水平5：（风险）
