The effect of economic downturn on the volume of surgical procedures: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND

Economic downturn can have a wide range of effects on medicine at both individual and national levels. We aim to describe these effects in relation to surgical volume to guide future planning for physician specialization, patient expectations in the face of economic crises, or estimating healthcare expenditure. We hypothesized that because of high out-of-pocket costs, cosmetic procedure volumes would be most affected by economic decline.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, and ABI/INFORMS. The main search terms were "economic recession" and "surgical procedures, operative". Studies were included if surgical volumes were measured and economic indicators were used as predictors of economic conditions.

RESULTS

Twelve studies were included, and the most common subject was cosmetic (n = 5), followed by orthopedic (n = 2) and cardiac surgeries (n = 2). The majority of studies found that in periods of economic downturn, surgical volume decreased. Among the eight studies using Pearson's correlation analysis, there were no significant differences between cosmetic procedures and other elective procedures, indicating that cosmetic procedures may display trends similar to those of non-cosmetic elective procedures in periods of economic downturn.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical volume generally decreased when economic indicators declined, observed for both elective and non-elective surgery fields. However, a few specific procedure volumes such as vasectomy and caesarean section for male babies increased during the economic downturn. Knowledge of these trends can be useful for future surgical planning and distribution of healthcare resources.