Batista Jefferson Felipe Calazans, Santos Vitória Steffany de Oliveira, Almeida-Santos Marcos Antonio, Lima Sonia Oliveira
Tiradentes University, Health and Environment Post-graduation Program, Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil.
IJID Reg. 2024 Dec 6;14:100514. doi: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100514. eCollection 2025 Mar.
To analyze the temporal trend of incidence and mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis in Brazil from 2002 to 2019 and to project these trends until 2034.
Ecological study with tuberculosis cases extracted from the Disease Notification and Mortality System in Brazil from 2002 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used for projection until 2034 using R. Subsequently, the percentage variation was estimated using Joinpoint.
Brazil recorded 1,093,070 new cases and 76,205 deaths from 2002 to 2019, and projections until 2035-2034 estimated 1,192,092 new cases and 67,532 deaths. The north region had the highest standardized incidence and mortality rates in the country for both sexes. An increase in deaths in men and reduction in women was projected, along with an increase in incidence in both sexes. About 36% of the increase in incidence and 34.1% of the mortality in men was explained by a rise in disease risk. In women, 11.7% of the increase in incidence was due to population growth, whereas 44.8% of the reduction in deaths was due to lower risk.
The north presented the worst scenario in the country. The projections are not favorable to the globally established targets. An increase in incidence was projected for men and women, with an increase in deaths only in men. More efforts are needed to change this potential scenario.
分析2002年至2019年巴西肺结核发病率和死亡率的时间趋势，并预测这些趋势直至2034年。
采用生态学研究方法，从巴西疾病通报和死亡系统中提取2002年至2019年的肺结核病例。使用年龄-时期-队列模型，利用R软件预测至2034年。随后，使用Joinpoint软件估计百分比变化。
2002年至2019年，巴西记录了1,093,070例新发病例和76,205例死亡病例，预测至2035 - 2034年估计有1,192,092例新发病例和67,532例死亡病例。北部地区男女的标准化发病率和死亡率在全国最高。预计男性死亡人数增加，女性死亡人数减少，同时男女发病率均上升。男性发病率增加的约36%和死亡率增加的34.1%可归因于疾病风险的上升。在女性中，发病率增加的11.7%归因于人口增长，而死亡人数减少的44.8%归因于风险降低。
北部地区是该国情况最糟糕的地区。这些预测不利于全球既定目标。预计男性和女性的发病率都会上升，只有男性的死亡人数会增加。需要做出更多努力来改变这种潜在局面。
