Silva Júnior José Nildo de Barros, Couto Rodrigo de Macedo, Alves Layana Costa, da Silva Daiane Alves, Heráclio Isabela de Lucena, Pelissari Daniele Maria, Andrade Kleydson Bonfim, Oliveira Patrícia Bartholomay
Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde Ministry of Health Brasília, DF Brazil Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministry of Health, Brasília, DF, Brazil.
Pan American Health Organization Brasília, DF Brazil Pan American Health Organization, Brasília, DF, Brazil.
Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2023 Nov 6;47:e152. doi: 10.26633/RPSP.2023.152. eCollection 2023.
To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019.
This was an ecological time series study of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Data were extracted from the Notifiable Disease Information System and the Mortality Information System, and population estimates were from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, which recognizes inflection points for temporal analysis.
The average incidence rate of tuberculosis in Brazil in the period was 35.8 cases per 100 000 population. From 2011 to 2015, this coefficient had an annual percentage change of -1.9% (95% CI [-3.4, -0.5]) followed by an increase of 2.4% (95% CI [0.9, 3.9]) until 2019. The average mortality rate between 2011 and 2019 was 2.2 deaths per 100 000 population, with an average annual percentage change of -0.4% (95% CI [-1.0, 0.2]). Amazonas was the only state with an increase in the annual average percentage variation for the incidence rate (3.2%; 95% CI [1.3, 5.1]) and mortality rate (2.7%; 95% CI [1.0, 4.4]) over the years, while Rio de Janeiro state had an increasing inflection for incidence from 2014 to 2019 (2.4%; 95% CI [1.4, 3.5]) and annual average of decreasing percentage variation (-3.5%; 95% CI [-5.0, -1.9]).
During the period analyzed, a decreasing trend in incidence was observed between 2011 and 2015, and an increasing trend for the period from 2015 to 2019. On the other hand, no change in the trend for mortality was found in Brazil.
分析2011年至2019年巴西结核病发病率和死亡率的时间趋势。
这是一项对2011年至2019年巴西结核病发病率和死亡率的生态时间序列研究。数据从法定传染病信息系统和死亡信息系统中提取，人口估计数来自巴西地理与统计研究所。通过Joinpoint回归分析趋势，该方法可识别时间分析的拐点。
该时期巴西结核病的平均发病率为每10万人口35.8例。2011年至2015年，该系数的年变化率为-1.9%（95%置信区间[-3.4, -0.5]），随后至2019年上升了2.4%（95%置信区间[0.9, 3.9]）。2011年至2019年的平均死亡率为每10万人口2.2例死亡，年变化率平均为-0.4%（95%置信区间[-1.0, 0.2]）。多年来，亚马孙州是发病率（3.2%；95%置信区间[1.3, 5.1]）和死亡率（2.7%；95%置信区间[1.0, 4.4]）年平均变化率唯一上升的州，而里约热内卢州在2014年至2019年发病率出现上升拐点（2.4%；95%置信区间[1.4, 3.5]），年平均变化率下降（-3.5%；95%置信区间[-5.0, -1.9]）。
在分析的时期内，2011年至2015年观察到发病率呈下降趋势，2015年至2019年呈上升趋势。另一方面，巴西死亡率趋势未发现变化。
