Centre for Environment, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
Int J Biometeorol. 2011 Nov;55(6):805-17. doi: 10.1007/s00484-011-0426-5. Epub 2011 Apr 21.
Mismatches in phenology between mutually dependent species, resulting from climate change, can have far-reaching consequences throughout an ecosystem at both higher and lower trophic levels. Rising temperatures, due to climate warming, have resulted in advances in development and changes in behaviour of many organisms around the world. However, not all species or phenophases are responding to this increase in temperature at the same rate, thus creating a disruption to previously synchronised interdependent key life-cycle stages. Mismatches have been reported between plants and pollinators, predators and prey, and pests and hosts. Here, we review mismatches between interdependent phenophases at different trophic levels resulting from climate change. We categorized the studies into (1) terrestrial (natural and agricultural) ecosystems, and (2) aquatic (freshwater and marine) ecosystems. As expected, we found reports of 'winners' and 'losers' in each system, such as earlier emergence of prey enabling partial avoidance of predators, potential reductions in crop yield if herbivore pests emerge before their predators and possible declines in marine biodiversity due to disruption in plankton-fish phenologies. Furthermore, in the marine environment rising temperatures have resulted in synchrony in a previously mismatched prey and predator system, resulting in an abrupt population decline in the prey species. The examples reviewed suggest that more research into the complex interactions between species in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is necessary to make conclusive predictions of how climate warming may impact the fragile balances within ecosystems in future.
由于气候变化,相互依存的物种之间的物候期不匹配会对更高和更低营养级别的整个生态系统产生深远的影响。由于气候变暖,全球许多生物的发育提前和行为发生变化。然而,并非所有物种或物候期都以相同的速度对这种温度升高做出反应,从而破坏了以前同步的相互依存的关键生命周期阶段。已经报道了植物和传粉者、捕食者和猎物以及害虫和宿主之间的不匹配。在这里,我们综述了由于气候变化导致不同营养级别的相互依存的物候期不匹配。我们将研究分为(1)陆地(自然和农业)生态系统和(2)水生(淡水和海洋)生态系统。正如预期的那样,我们在每个系统中都发现了“赢家”和“输家”的报告,例如,猎物的早期出现使它们能够部分避免捕食者,食草害虫在其捕食者之前出现可能会降低作物产量,以及由于浮游生物 - 鱼类物候期的破坏可能导致海洋生物多样性减少。此外,在海洋环境中,温度升高导致以前不匹配的猎物和捕食者系统同步,导致猎物物种的种群突然减少。综述的例子表明,需要对陆地和水生生态系统中物种之间的复杂相互作用进行更多的研究,以便对气候变暖可能如何影响未来生态系统内部脆弱的平衡做出明确的预测。