Development of a Machine Learning-Powered Optimized Lung Allocation System for Maximum Benefits in Lung Transplantation: A Korean National Data.

BACKGROUND

An ideal lung allocation system should reduce waiting list deaths, improve transplant survival, and ensure equitable organ allocation. This study aimed to develop a novel lung allocation score (LAS) system, the MaxBenefit LAS, to maximize transplant benefits.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed data from the Korean Network for Organ Sharing database, including 1,599 lung transplant candidates between September 2009 and December 2020. We developed the MaxBenefit LAS, combining a waitlist mortality model and a post-transplant survival model using elastic-net Cox regression, was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) values and Uno's C-index. Its performance was compared to the US LAS in an independent cohort.

RESULTS

The waitlist mortality model showed strong predictive performance with AUC values of 0.834 and 0.818 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The post-transplant survival model also demonstrated good predictive ability (AUC: 0.708 and 0.685). The MaxBenefit LAS effectively stratified patients by risk, with higher scores correlating with increased waitlist mortality and decreased post-transplant mortality. The MaxBenefit LAS outperformed the conventional LAS in predicting waitlist death and identifying candidates with higher transplant benefits.

CONCLUSION

The MaxBenefit LAS offers a promising approach to optimizing lung allocation by balancing the urgency of candidates with their likelihood of survival post-transplant. This novel system has the potential to improve outcomes for lung transplant recipients and reduce waitlist mortality, providing a more equitable allocation of donor lungs.