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基于模糊综合评价法的500kV变电站工程项目后评价模型

Post-evaluation model for 500 kV substation engineering projects using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.

作者信息

Chen Jianquan, Zhuang Yi, Chen Shaoyong, Zhang Zhongtian, Zhang Yu

机构信息

Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd Yunfu Power Supply Bureau, Yunfu City, 527300, China.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2025 Jan 28;11(4):e42327. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2025.e42327. eCollection 2025 Feb 28.

Abstract

To accurately assess the economic benefits and expected outcomes of investing in a 500 kV power transmission and substation project, it is essential to conduct a comprehensive economic evaluation of the entire system. This paper develops a post-evaluation model based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method tailored for 500 kV transmission and substation projects. Using this model, the implementation process is thoroughly evaluated. First, the analytic hierarchy process is employed to determine the weights of each evaluation indicator, taking into account factors such as planning effectiveness, preliminary achievements, bid management efficiency, construction performance, project outcomes and benefits, social and environmental impacts, and project sustainability. Next, tailored scoring criteria are established based on practical circumstances, categorizing indicators into qualitative and quantitative types. Through the FCE method, qualitative indicators are converted into quantitative data, with expert opinions aggregated using the Delphi method to derive the final evaluation results. Quantitative analysis across multiple indicators yields an overall project success score of 92.54, reflecting outstanding performance in areas such as planning effectiveness (100.00), preliminary achievements (99.12), and construction performance (98.00). Furthermore, both social and environmental impact scores are perfect (100.00), underscoring the project's positive contributions to regional economic and social development. However, the economic benefit indicator scores only 61.88, particularly with a financial performance score of 54.33, highlighting areas for improvement in cost control and fund utilization. Based on these findings, this paper proposes a series of project management recommendations aimed at enhancing project success and sustainability. The novelty of this paper lies in its integration of a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model that effectively combines multiple evaluation methods, offering a new framework for post-evaluation of complex projects. By merging expert scoring with empirical data, this paper establishes a more objective and comprehensive evaluation system that meets the multidimensional assessment needs of complex projects. The paper not only provides empirical support for 500 kV power transmission and substation projects but also offers a valuable theoretical foundation and practical guidance for decision-makers in the power engineering sector for future project evaluation and management.

摘要

为准确评估投资500千伏输电变电项目的经济效益和预期成果,对整个系统进行全面的经济评价至关重要。本文基于模糊综合评价(FCE)方法,针对500千伏输电变电项目开发了一种后评价模型。利用该模型,对项目实施过程进行了全面评估。首先,运用层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重,考虑规划有效性、前期成果、招投标管理效率、建设绩效、项目成果与效益、社会与环境影响以及项目可持续性等因素。其次,根据实际情况制定了针对性的评分标准,将指标分为定性和定量两类。通过FCE方法,将定性指标转化为定量数据,采用德尔菲法汇总专家意见得出最终评价结果。多个指标的定量分析得出项目总体成功得分为92.54,反映出在规划有效性(100.00)、前期成果(99.12)和建设绩效(98.00)等方面表现出色。此外,社会和环境影响得分均为满分(100.00),突出了项目对区域经济和社会发展的积极贡献。然而,经济效益指标仅得61.88分,尤其是财务绩效得分为54.33分,凸显了成本控制和资金利用方面有待改进的领域。基于这些结果,本文提出了一系列旨在提高项目成功率和可持续性的项目管理建议。本文的新颖之处在于其整合了综合模糊评价模型,有效结合了多种评价方法,为复杂项目的后评价提供了新的框架。通过将专家评分与实证数据相结合,本文建立了一个更客观、全面的评价体系,满足了复杂项目的多维度评估需求。本文不仅为500千伏输电变电项目提供了实证支持,也为电力工程领域的决策者在未来项目评价和管理方面提供了有价值的理论基础和实践指导。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/93f4/11867278/34a0360192d4/gr1.jpg

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