Randell Heather, Gray Clark, Grant Monica, Shinkareva Galina, Seyoum Wondwosen M, O'Reilly Catherine
Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, 301 19 Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455.
Department of Geography and Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Popul Environ. 2025 Mar;47(1). doi: 10.1007/s11111-025-00476-9. Epub 2025 Jan 24.
Food insecurity is a key barrier to improving global health and achieving sustainable development. Nearly 30% of the world's population experiences moderate or severe food insecurity, and rates of hunger have risen in recent years. Environmental change is a major factor driving this increase, as warming air and water temperatures, extreme weather, and land use change can threaten food production. We argue that an important, yet underexplored, pathway between environmental change and food insecurity is through aquatic conditions and fisheries. We focus on Malawi, which is heavily dependent on fish consumption and experiences high rates of food insecurity. By linking nationally representative household survey data from 2010 through 2020 to remotely-sensed chlorophyll and lake surface temperature data from Lake Malawi, we examine the relationship between changing aquatic conditions and food security among households located near the lakeshore. We find that warmer-than-average lake temperatures are negatively associated with multiple food security indicators including Food Consumption Score, self-reported adequacy of food consumption, consumption of dried fish, and consumption of animal protein during four of more days in the prior week. These findings provide insight into the linkages between environmental change, aquatic conditions, and population health, and can inform policies to reduce food insecurity, particularly among fisheries-dependent communities.
粮食不安全是改善全球健康和实现可持续发展的关键障碍。世界近30%的人口面临中度或重度粮食不安全问题，且近年来饥饿率有所上升。环境变化是导致这一增长的主要因素，因为气温升高、极端天气和土地利用变化会威胁粮食生产。我们认为，环境变化与粮食不安全之间一条重要但尚未充分探索的途径是通过水生环境和渔业。我们重点关注马拉维，该国严重依赖鱼类消费且粮食不安全率很高。通过将2010年至2020年具有全国代表性的家庭调查数据与马拉维湖的遥感叶绿素和湖面温度数据相联系，我们研究了湖滨附近家庭不断变化的水生环境与粮食安全之间的关系。我们发现，高于平均水平的湖温与多个粮食安全指标呈负相关，这些指标包括食物消费得分、自我报告的食物消费充足程度、干鱼消费以及前一周四天或更多天的动物蛋白消费。这些发现为了解环境变化、水生环境与人口健康之间的联系提供了见解，并可为减少粮食不安全的政策提供参考，特别是在依赖渔业的社区。
