Randell Heather, Gray Clark, Shayo Elizabeth H
Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, 110-A Armsby Building, Penn State, University Park, PA, USA 16802.
Department of Geography, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.
Food Policy. 2022 Oct;112. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102362. Epub 2022 Sep 28.
Food security and adequate nutrition are critical for achieving progress toward sustainable development. Two billion people worldwide experience moderate to severe food insecurity, and rates of hunger have increased over the past several years after declining steadily for decades. The FAO attributes this increase in large part to climate change, though empirical evidence on the relationship between climatic conditions and food security remains limited. We examine this question by linking nationally representative longitudinal data from four rounds of the Tanzania National Panel Survey to high-resolution gridded climate data. We then estimate a set of fixed effects regression models to understand the linkages between recent rainy season precipitation and temperature and two indicators of household food security: Food Consumption Score (FCS) and reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI). We find that low rainfall-particularly dry and cool conditions-is negatively associated with food security. Moving from a typical rainfall year to a particularly dry one increases the risk of being food insecure on both measures simultaneously by 13-percentage points. This suggests that a lack of rainfall impedes households' ability to access food, likely through reduced agricultural production and increased food prices, leading to lower dietary diversity and food shortages. Vulnerability is higher among households with fewer working age members, suggesting that households with a greater supply of labor can better withstand droughts. As climate change alters precipitation and temperature patterns over the coming decades, policies to increase resilience will be critical for improving food security, particularly among populations heavily reliant on agriculture.
粮食安全和充足营养对于实现可持续发展至关重要。全球有20亿人经历中度至重度粮食不安全状况，而且在经历了数十年的稳步下降之后，饥饿率在过去几年中有所上升。联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）将这种上升主要归因于气候变化，尽管有关气候条件与粮食安全之间关系的实证证据仍然有限。我们通过将来自坦桑尼亚全国小组调查四轮的具有全国代表性的纵向数据与高分辨率网格化气候数据相联系来研究这个问题。然后，我们估计了一组固定效应回归模型，以了解近期雨季降水量和温度与家庭粮食安全的两个指标之间的联系：食物消费得分（FCS）和简化应对策略指数（rCSI）。我们发现降雨少，特别是干燥和凉爽的条件，与粮食安全呈负相关。从典型降雨年份转变为特别干旱的年份，两种衡量方式下粮食不安全的风险同时增加13个百分点。这表明降雨不足可能通过减少农业产量和提高食品价格来阻碍家庭获取食物的能力，从而导致饮食多样性降低和食物短缺。劳动年龄成员较少的家庭脆弱性更高，这表明劳动力供应较多的家庭能够更好地抵御干旱。随着气候变化在未来几十年改变降水和温度模式，增强恢复力的政策对于改善粮食安全至关重要，特别是在严重依赖农业的人口中。
