1990年至2021年及到2049年预测期间，全球因高体重指数导致的甲状腺癌负担的趋势和差异：基于《2021年全球疾病负担研究》的系统分析

Global trend and disparity in the burden of thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2049: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

作者信息

Chen Ye-Xin, Hong Han-Zhang, Gao Zi-Heng, Hu Yu-Xin, Yao Ling-Zi, Liu Jiang-Teng, Zhao Yan, Cui Gai-Weng, Mao Dan-Dan, Zhao Jin-Xi

机构信息

Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 100700, China.

School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2025 Mar 18;25(1):1051. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-21960-9.

DOI:10.1186/s12889-025-21960-9

PMID:40102768

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11921707/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Obesity and overweight are increasingly recognized as significant risk factors for the incidence and progression of thyroid cancer (TC). However, its epidemiological investigation including the disease burden and its trends remains insufficiently explored. This research aimed to reveal and predict the disease burden of thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index (TC-HBMI), which would offer significant references for focused prevention and disease management methods.

METHODS

The study extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Deaths case, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) case, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were obtained from GBD 2021 to assess the global burden from 1990 to 2021. Decomposition analysis explored the driving factors to TC-HBMI. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in ASMR and ASDR of TC-HBMI was determined to analyze temporal trends by Joinpoint regression analysis. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was utilized to project the disease burden untill 2049.

RESULTS

The global deaths and DALYs of TC-HBMI were 5,255 and 144,955 in 2021, exhibiting a continuous growth trend over the past 32 years. The ASMR and ASDR for males showed faster growth. The disease burden was greatest among middle-aged and older populations, while the rapidly increase in adolescents should not be overlooked. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions and Latin America each recorded the highest disease burden within their respective categories of SDI regions and GBD regions. Additionally, Predictive models indicated a gradual upward trend from 2022 to 2049.

CONCLUSION

The study revealed that the global disease burden of TC-HBMI had continuously increased from 1990 to 2021, and it was predicted to escalate until 2049. The findings emphasize the need for more detailed TC screening and weight loss measures tailored to specific regions and populations, which would benefit efforts to curb the projected rise in TC-HBMI deaths and DALYs.

摘要

背景

肥胖和超重日益被视为甲状腺癌（TC）发病和进展的重要风险因素。然而，其包括疾病负担及其趋势在内的流行病学调查仍未得到充分探索。本研究旨在揭示和预测归因于高体重指数的甲状腺癌疾病负担（TC-HBMI），这将为有针对性的预防和疾病管理方法提供重要参考。

方法

该研究从《2021年全球疾病负担研究》（GBD 2021）中提取数据。从GBD 2021中获取死亡病例、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）病例、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化DALYs率（ASDR），以评估1990年至2021年的全球负担。分解分析探索了TC-HBMI的驱动因素。通过Joinpoint回归分析确定TC-HBMI的ASMR和ASDR的平均年度百分比变化（AAPC），以分析时间趋势。利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测到2049年的疾病负担。

结果

2021年，TC-HBMI的全球死亡人数和DALYs分别为5255人和144955人，在过去32年中呈持续增长趋势。男性的ASMR和ASDR增长更快。疾病负担在中老年人群中最为严重，而青少年中的快速增长也不应被忽视。高社会人口指数（SDI）地区和拉丁美洲在各自的SDI地区和GBD地区类别中疾病负担最高。此外，预测模型表明2022年至2049年呈逐渐上升趋势。