Yin Yifan, Li Chengwu, Ye Qiusheng, Wei Chengmin, Li Mingjie
School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), (No.11, Ding), College Road of Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 2;15(1):11204. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-83116-w.
Amidst the global surge in industrialization, frequent coal mine safety incidents pose significant risks to miners' lives and environmental stability. This study employs Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (FMCDM) to quantitatively analyze regulatory factors affecting coal mine safety in China from 2012 to 2022, identifying key elements that influence accident risks and regional policy disparities. By integrating Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL), and Gaussian Fuzzy Monte Carlo Analytic Network Process (GFMANP), a comprehensive risk assessment model is developed. This multifaceted approach addresses the limitations of traditional assessment methods, not only identifying the key regulatory factors impacting coal mine safety but also quantifying their influence and interrelationships. The findings reveal a strong correlation between design schemes and management systems (correlation coefficient 0.4931), emphasizing their interdependence and the importance of an integrated approach to safety management. In addition, the results show that technical documents and Southwest factors have the highest risk values (0.1506 and 0.2050, respectively), which provide a detailed risk assessment for different regions of China and are crucial for developing security strategies for different regions. Based on these findings, the recommendations include optimizing the synergy between design schemes and management systems, enhancing technical document management, and developing region-specific safety strategies to reduce the risks of coal mine accidents and improve safety management standards.
在全球工业化浪潮中，频繁发生的煤矿安全事故对矿工生命和环境稳定构成重大风险。本研究采用模糊多准则决策法（FMCDM）对2012年至2022年影响中国煤矿安全的监管因素进行定量分析，确定影响事故风险的关键因素和区域政策差异。通过整合结构方程模型（SEM）、模糊决策试验与评价实验室法（FDEMATEL）和高斯模糊蒙特卡洛分析网络过程法（GFMANP），开发了一个综合风险评估模型。这种多方面的方法克服了传统评估方法的局限性，不仅识别了影响煤矿安全的关键监管因素，还量化了它们的影响和相互关系。研究结果显示设计方案与管理系统之间存在很强的相关性（相关系数为0.4931），强调了它们的相互依存关系以及安全管理综合方法的重要性。此外，结果表明技术文件和西南地区因素的风险值最高（分别为0.1506和0.2050），这为中国不同地区提供了详细的风险评估，对制定不同地区的安全策略至关重要。基于这些发现，建议包括优化设计方案与管理系统之间的协同作用、加强技术文件管理以及制定针对不同地区的安全策略，以降低煤矿事故风险并提高安全管理标准。
