Chen Shimao, Jiang Zixuan, Song Jia, Xie Tao, Xue Yu, Yang Qingshan
College of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China.
Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Research & Development of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2025 Mar 19;16:1563070. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1563070. eCollection 2025.
is an important medicinal plant widely used in traditional Chinese medicine for the treatment of rheumatism, insomnia, and liver and gallbladder diseases. Its resources primarily rely on wild populations, which are insufficient to meet the increasing market demand. Furthermore, climate change exacerbates the uncertainty of its distribution range. This study employs an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of under current and future climate scenarios in China. Based on 445 effective occurrence records and 90 environmental variables (covering climatic, soil, and topographic factors), the study selected key variables influencing the distribution through correlation analysis and variable contribution rates, and optimized model parameters to improve prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.934). Results showed that, under current climate conditions, the total suitable habitat area of is 2.06 × 10 km, accounting for 21.39% of China's land area, mainly distributed in central, eastern, and southern China. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio_6, contribution rate 72.8%) was identified as the key factor influencing distribution, while November precipitation (prec_11) and annual temperature range (bio_7) also played important roles. Under future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), the total suitable habitat area shows an overall increasing trend, reaching a maximum in the 2070s under the high-emission scenario (an increase of 3.6 × 10 km compared to the current distribution). Expansion was primarily observed in northern high-latitude regions. The geometric centroid of suitable areas demonstrated a significant northward shift, reflecting the adaptive expansion potential of in response to warming climates. This study highlights the significant impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of and provides scientific evidence for its conservation, cultivation planning, and sustainable development in the context of climate change.
是一种重要的药用植物，在传统中医中广泛用于治疗风湿、失眠以及肝胆疾病。其资源主要依赖野生种群，已不足以满足不断增长的市场需求。此外，气候变化加剧了其分布范围的不确定性。本研究采用优化的MaxEnt模型预测在中国当前和未来气候情景下的潜在分布。基于445条有效出现记录和90个环境变量（涵盖气候、土壤和地形因素），该研究通过相关性分析和变量贡献率筛选出影响分布的关键变量，并优化模型参数以提高预测精度（AUC = 0.934）。结果表明，在当前气候条件下，的总适宜生境面积为2.06×10平方千米，占中国陆地面积的21.39%，主要分布在中国中部、东部和南部。最冷月最低温度（bio_6，贡献率72.8%）被确定为影响分布的关键因素，而11月降水量（prec_11）和年温度范围（bio_7）也发挥重要作用。在未来气候变化情景（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5）下，总适宜生境面积总体呈增加趋势，在高排放情景下2070年代达到最大值（比当前分布增加3.6×10平方千米）。扩张主要发生在北部高纬度地区。适宜区域的几何中心显著向北移动，反映了在气候变暖背景下的适应性扩张潜力。本研究突出了温度和降水对分布的重大影响，并为其在气候变化背景下的保护、种植规划和可持续发展提供了科学依据。
