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基于优化的最大熵模型,在当前和未来气候情景下潜在适宜的地理区域。

Potentially suitable geographical area for under current and future climatic scenarios based on optimized MaxEnt model.

作者信息

Fu Chun, Peng Yaqin, Yang Fengrong, He Zhipeng, Ali Habib, Xu Danping

机构信息

Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province for Bamboo Pests Control and Resource Development, Leshan Normal University, Leshan, China.

College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong, China.

出版信息

Front Microbiol. 2024 Sep 23;15:1463070. doi: 10.3389/fmicb.2024.1463070. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Global climate warming has led to changes in the suitable habitats for fungi. , a common fungus causing anthracnose disease, is widely distributed in southern China. Currently, research on the relationship between and environmental warming was limited. In this study, MaxEnt and ArcGIS software were used to predict the suitable habitats of under current and future climate conditions based on its occurrence records and environmental factors. The optimal MaxEnt model parameters were set as feature combination (FC) = lp and regularization multiplier (RM) = 2.6. Bio15, Bio12, Bio09, and Bio19 were identified as the main environmental factors influencing the distribution of . Under current climate conditions, was distributed across all continents globally, except Antarctica. In China, was primarily distributed south of the Qinling-Huaihe Line, with a total suitable area of 259.52 × 10 km. Under future climate conditions, the potential suitable habitat area for was expected to increase and spread towards inland China. The results of this study provided timely risk assessment for the distribution and spread of in China and offer scientific guidance for monitoring and timely controlled of its distribution areas.

摘要

全球气候变暖导致了真菌适宜栖息地的变化。炭疽病菌是一种引发炭疽病的常见真菌,在中国南方广泛分布。目前,关于炭疽病菌与环境变暖之间关系的研究有限。在本研究中,基于炭疽病菌的发生记录和环境因素,利用MaxEnt和ArcGIS软件预测其在当前和未来气候条件下的适宜栖息地。最优的MaxEnt模型参数设置为特征组合(FC)=lp且正则化乘数(RM)=2.6。生物15、生物12、生物09和生物19被确定为影响炭疽病菌分布的主要环境因素。在当前气候条件下,炭疽病菌在全球除南极洲外的各大洲均有分布。在中国,炭疽病菌主要分布在秦岭—淮河线以南,适宜总面积为259.52×10平方千米。在未来气候条件下,炭疽病菌的潜在适宜栖息地面积预计将增加并向中国内陆地区扩散。本研究结果为炭疽病菌在中国的分布和传播提供了及时的风险评估,并为其分布区域的监测和及时防控提供了科学指导。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f341/11456431/4f590f2a5c89/fmicb-15-1463070-g001.jpg

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