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基于优化最大熵模型的当前和未来气候情景下潜在适宜地理区域

Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model.

作者信息

Gao Ruihe, Liu Lei, Zhao Lijuan, Cui Shaopeng

机构信息

Department of Forest Conservation, College of Forestry, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030801, China.

Shanxi Dangerous Forest Pest Inspection and Identification Center, Jinzhong 030801, China.

出版信息

Insects. 2023 Feb 13;14(2):182. doi: 10.3390/insects14020182.

Abstract

is considered to be an important and effective insect vector for the spread of the important international forest quarantine pest, . The precise determination of potential suitable areas of is essential to monitor, prevent, and control worldwide. According to the distribution points and climatic variables, the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were used to predict the current and future potentially suitable areas of worldwide. The optimized MaxEnt model parameters were set as feature combination (FC) = LQHP and β = 1.5, which were determined by the values of AUC, OR, and ΔAICc. Bio2, Bio6, Bio10, Bio12, and Bio14 were the dominant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of . Under the current climate conditions, the potentially suitable habitats of were distributed across all continents except Antarctica, accounting for 4.17% of the Earth's total land area. Under future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitats of increased significantly, spreading to a global scale. The results of this study could provide a theoretical basis for the risk analysis of the global distribution and dispersal of as well as the precise monitoring and prevention of this beetle.

摘要

被认为是重要国际森林检疫害虫传播的一种重要且有效的昆虫媒介。准确确定[昆虫名称]潜在适宜区域对于在全球范围内监测、预防和控制该害虫至关重要。根据分布点和气候变量,利用优化的MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS预测全球范围内[昆虫名称]当前和未来的潜在适宜区域。优化的MaxEnt模型参数设置为特征组合(FC)= LQHP且β = 1.5,这些参数由AUC、OR和ΔAICc的值确定。生物2、生物6、生物10、生物12和生物14是影响[昆虫名称]分布的主要生物气候变量。在当前气候条件下,[昆虫名称]的潜在适宜栖息地分布在除南极洲以外的所有大陆,占地球陆地总面积的4.17%。在未来气候情景下,[昆虫名称]的潜在适宜栖息地显著增加,扩展到全球范围。本研究结果可为[昆虫名称]全球分布和扩散的风险分析以及该甲虫的精确监测和预防提供理论依据。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/95dc/9962367/de717b24f409/insects-14-00182-g001.jpg

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