Zhuang Xuefang, Li Qingyin, Su Tian, Zhang Siying, Wu Rong, Zheng Tianxiang
Yuexiu Branch of Guangzhou Urban Planning & Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou, China.
School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Mar 19;13:1328329. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1328329. eCollection 2025.
The total fertility rate in China has been dropping in recent years, and this continuing trend has led to a series of problems. China has experienced periods of urbanization and housing reforms, leading to a significant boom in the real estate market. Housing status appears to be an essential factor influencing the fertility-related decisions of residents in China.
We use cross-sectional data from a nationally representative large-scale tracking survey targeting the labor force in China. The research sample for this study comprised data from Chinese adults between the ages of 20 and 45. We highlight the importance of housing mortgages on fertility intention based on the Poisson regression model.
Data was collected from a total of 7,512 inhabitants. The results show the following: 1) Housing status is closely related to fertility intention, while housing mortgage and water contamination are negatively affected. 2) The urban built environment, social environment, and individual characteristics affecting fertility intention mainly occur in urbanization rate, green coverage rate in urban built-up areas (GCR), life satisfaction, mental health, age, gender, marital status, political status, and education status. Urbanization rate, GCR, life satisfaction, and mental health positively influence resident's fertility intention, whereas women and single show lower fertility intention. 3) In particular, there are significant regional differences in the mechanism of fertility intention. Such intention in the eastern and central regions is primarily related to housing mortgages, urban built environment, the degree of contamination in the habitat, and socioeconomic factors, while the intention in the northeastern region is related to soil contamination. Fertility intention in the western and northeastern region are strongly related to mental health.
近年来，中国的总和生育率持续下降，这一趋势引发了一系列问题。中国经历了城市化和住房改革阶段，房地产市场迎来显著繁荣。住房状况似乎是影响中国居民生育相关决策的一个重要因素。
我们使用了针对中国劳动力的具有全国代表性的大规模跟踪调查的横截面数据。本研究的样本包括20至45岁中国成年人的数据。基于泊松回归模型，我们强调了住房抵押贷款对生育意愿的重要性。
共收集了7512名居民的数据。结果如下：1）住房状况与生育意愿密切相关，而住房抵押贷款和水污染对生育意愿有负面影响。2）影响生育意愿的城市建设环境、社会环境和个人特征主要体现在城市化率、城市建成区绿化覆盖率（GCR）、生活满意度、心理健康、年龄、性别、婚姻状况、政治身份和教育程度等方面。城市化率、GCR、生活满意度和心理健康对居民生育意愿有积极影响，而女性和单身人士的生育意愿较低。3）特别是，生育意愿的影响机制存在显著的地区差异。东部和中部地区的生育意愿主要与住房抵押贷款、城市建设环境、居住环境污染程度和社会经济因素有关，而东北地区的生育意愿与土壤污染有关。西部地区和东北地区的生育意愿与心理健康密切相关。
