Liang Shijing, Ziegler Alan D, Reich Peter B, Zhu Kai, Wang Dashan, Jiang Xin, Chen Deliang, Ciais Philippe, Zeng Zhenzhong
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
Institute for Global Change Biology, and School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Sci Adv. 2025 Apr 11;11(15):eadn7915. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adn7915. Epub 2025 Apr 9.
Afforestation and reforestation, both of which refer to forestation strategies, are widely promoted as key tools to mitigate anthropogenic warming. However, the carbon sequestration potential of these efforts remains uncertain in satellite-based assessments, particularly when accounting for dynamic climate conditions, vegetation-climate feedback, fire-dominated disturbance, and the trade-offs associated with surface albedo changes. Leveraging a coupled Earth system model, we estimated that global forestation mitigates 31.3 to 69.2 Pg C (carbon equivalent) during 2021-2100 under a sustainable shared socioeconomic pathway. Regionally, the highest carbon mitigation potential of forestation concentrates in tropical areas, while mid-high-latitude regions demonstrate higher heterogeneity, highlighting the need for region-specific strategies and further refinement of nature-based mitigation plans. Our findings underscore the importance of considering disturbances and minimizing adverse albedo changes when estimating the carbon mitigation potential of forestation initiatives. We also advocate for the development of consistent, high-resolution maps of suitable areas for targeted forestation, avoiding environmentally sensitive lands and potential conflicts with other human activities.
造林和再造林均指造林策略，作为缓解人为变暖的关键手段得到广泛推广。然而，在基于卫星的评估中，这些举措的碳固存潜力仍不确定，尤其是在考虑动态气候条件、植被-气候反馈、以火灾为主导的干扰以及与地表反照率变化相关的权衡时。利用一个耦合地球系统模型，我们估计，在可持续共享社会经济路径下，2021年至2100年全球造林可固存31.3至69.2PgC（碳当量）。在区域层面，造林的最高碳减排潜力集中在热带地区，而中高纬度地区表现出更高的异质性，这凸显了制定区域特定战略以及进一步完善基于自然的减排计划的必要性。我们的研究结果强调了在评估造林举措的碳减排潜力时考虑干扰因素并尽量减少反照率不利变化的重要性。我们还主张绘制一致的、高分辨率的适宜造林区域地图，避开环境敏感地区以及与其他人类活动的潜在冲突。
