Weber James, King James A, Abraham Nathan Luke, Grosvenor Daniel P, Smith Christopher J, Shin Youngsub Matthew, Lawrence Peter, Roe Stephanie, Beerling David J, Martin Maria Val
Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK.
Centre for Atmospheric Science, Yusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, UK.
Science. 2024 Feb 23;383(6685):860-864. doi: 10.1126/science.adg6196. Epub 2024 Feb 22.
Forestation is widely proposed for carbon dioxide (CO) removal, but its impact on climate through changes to atmospheric composition and surface albedo remains relatively unexplored. We assessed these responses using two Earth system models by comparing a scenario with extensive global forest expansion in suitable regions to other plausible futures. We found that forestation increased aerosol scattering and the greenhouse gases methane and ozone following increased biogenic organic emissions. Additionally, forestation decreased surface albedo, which yielded a positive radiative forcing (i.e., warming). This offset up to a third of the negative forcing from the additional CO removal under a 4°C warming scenario. However, when forestation was pursued alongside other strategies that achieve the 2°C Paris Agreement target, the offsetting positive forcing was smaller, highlighting the urgency for simultaneous emission reductions.
植树造林被广泛提议用于去除二氧化碳(CO),但其通过改变大气成分和地表反照率对气候产生的影响仍相对未被充分探索。我们使用两个地球系统模型评估了这些响应,方法是将一个在适宜地区进行大规模全球森林扩张的情景与其他合理的未来情景进行比较。我们发现,造林增加了气溶胶散射以及生物源有机排放增加后产生的温室气体甲烷和臭氧。此外,造林降低了地表反照率,产生了正辐射强迫(即变暖)。在4°C变暖情景下,这抵消了额外去除CO所产生的负强迫的三分之一。然而,当与实现《巴黎协定》2°C目标的其他策略同时进行造林时,抵消性的正强迫较小,这凸显了同时减排的紧迫性。