de Oliveira Franck Morais, Ferraz Patrícia Ferreira Ponciano, Ferraz Gabriel Araújo E Silva, Pereira Marcos Neves, Barbari Matteo, Rossi Giuseppe
Department of Agricultural Engineering, School of Engineering, Federal University of Lavras (UFLA), Lavras 37203-202, Brazil.
Department of Animal Science, Federal University of Lavras (UFLA), Lavras 37203-202, Brazil.
Animals (Basel). 2025 Apr 5;15(7):1054. doi: 10.3390/ani15071054.
The accurate prediction of body mass (BM) in cattle is crucial for herd monitoring, assessing biological efficiency, and optimizing nutritional management. This study evaluated BM prediction models using morphological data from 465 lactating Holstein cows, including the dorsal length (DL), thoracic width (TW), abdominal width (AW), rump width (RW), hip height (HH), body depth (BD), thoracic perimeter (TP), and abdominal perimeter (AP). Spearman's correlation analysis identified TP (r = 0.89), AP (r = 0.88), and RW (r = 0.80) as the strongest predictors. Simple and multiple linear regression models, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were tested. The dataset was split into 90% for training (419 samples), 5% for validation (23 samples), and 5% for testing (23 samples). The best simple model, using only TP, achieved an R of 0.7763 and an RMSE of 43.69 kg. A multiple regression model with TP, AP, and RW improved performance (R = 0.9067, RMSE = 28.00 kg). The ANN outperformed all of the models (R = 0.9125, RMSE = 25.86 kg), and was followed by SVR (R = 0.9046, RMSE = 27.41 kg). As an indication of the evaluation of the results obtained, it is observed that, although regression models are effective, the ANNs and SVR provide greater accuracy, reinforcing their potential for herd management. However, simpler models remain viable alternatives for practical on-farm application.
准确预测奶牛的体重对于牛群监测、评估生物效率以及优化营养管理至关重要。本研究使用465头泌乳期荷斯坦奶牛的形态学数据评估体重预测模型,这些数据包括背长(DL)、胸宽(TW)、腹宽(AW)、臀宽(RW)、体高(HH)、体深(BD)、胸围(TP)和腹围(AP)。Spearman相关性分析确定胸围(r = 0.89)、腹围(r = 0.88)和臀宽(r = 0.80)是最强的预测指标。测试了简单和多元线性回归模型、人工神经网络(ANN)和支持向量回归(SVR)。数据集被分为90%用于训练(419个样本)、5%用于验证(23个样本)和5%用于测试(23个样本)。仅使用胸围的最佳简单模型的R值为0.7763,均方根误差(RMSE)为43.69千克。包含胸围、腹围和臀宽的多元回归模型性能有所提高(R = 0.9067,RMSE = 28.00千克)。人工神经网络的表现优于所有模型(R = 0.9125,RMSE = 25.86千克),其次是支持向量回归(R = 0.9046,RMSE = 27.41千克)。作为对所得结果评估情况的一种说明,可以观察到,尽管回归模型有效,但人工神经网络和支持向量回归提供了更高的准确性,这强化了它们在牛群管理中的潜力。然而,更简单的模型对于农场实际应用来说仍是可行的替代方案。