Simões João, Bernardo Alexandra, Lima Gonçalves Luísa, Brito José
Instituto Universitário Egas Moniz (IUEM), Campus Universitário, Quinta da Granja, Monte de Caparica, 2829-511, Caparica, Portugal.
Centro de Investigação Interdisciplinar Egas Moniz (CiiEM), Campus Universitário, Quinta da Granja, Monte de Caparica, 2829-511, Caparica, Portugal.
Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 15;15(1):12862. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-97704-x.
This study uses the World Health Organization's AirQ+ model to assess the relationship between air pollution and mortality in Portugal from 2010 to 2021, focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. By integrating AirQ+ with Linear Mixed Models, we analyzed long-term air pollution data and its health effects. Results indicate a significant decrease in [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] concentrations in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID-19 restrictions and reduced transportation emissions. Conversely, [Formula: see text] exposure slightly increased. The model estimates over 5000 annual deaths from [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] exposure and over 139 annual deaths from [Formula: see text]-related respiratory diseases for 2010-2021. Despite limitations like the need for better assessment of pollutant mixtures and climatic variables, the study shows a decrease in [Formula: see text]-related disease burden during the pandemic. These trends reflect anomalies in mortality and pollution data rather than policy improvements. The study underscores the utility of AirQ+ in guiding public health strategies and tracking progress toward the 2030 Agenda, offering insights into reducing mortality and morbidity through decreased air pollutant exposure and highlighting the need for sustained, multidimensional pollution reduction efforts.
本研究使用世界卫生组织的AirQ+模型评估2010年至2021年期间葡萄牙空气污染与死亡率之间的关系，重点关注新冠疫情的影响。通过将AirQ+与线性混合模型相结合，我们分析了长期空气污染数据及其对健康的影响。结果表明，由于新冠疫情限制措施以及交通排放减少，2020年和2021年[公式：见原文]和[公式：见原文]浓度显著下降。相反，[公式：见原文]暴露略有增加。该模型估计，2010年至2021年期间，每年因[公式：见原文]和[公式：见原文]暴露导致的死亡人数超过5000人，因[公式：见原文]相关呼吸道疾病导致的年死亡人数超过139人。尽管存在一些局限性，如需要更好地评估污染物混合物和气候变量，但该研究表明疫情期间与[公式：见原文]相关的疾病负担有所下降。这些趋势反映了死亡率和污染数据的异常，而非政策改善。该研究强调了AirQ+在指导公共卫生战略和跟踪实现《2030年议程》进展方面的效用，为通过减少空气污染物暴露降低死亡率和发病率提供了见解，并突出了持续开展多维度污染减排工作的必要性。
