Gan Yuanjie, Cheng Lijun, Tang Junfeng, Han Hongyan, Gan Xiaohong
Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education) China West Normal University Nanchong China.
College of Panda China West Normal University Nanchong China.
Ecol Evol. 2024 Jul 14;14(7):e11710. doi: 10.1002/ece3.11710. eCollection 2024 Jul.
Exploring the changing process of the geographical distribution pattern of Oliv. and its main influencing factors since the last interglacial period can provide a scientific basis for the effective protection and management of the species. The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potential distribution areas of in different periods such as the last interglacial (LIG), the last glacial maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene (MID), and the current and future (2050s and 2070s). On the premise of discussing the influence of dominant environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable area changes of under different ecological climate situations were quantitatively analyzed. (1) The AUC and TSS values predicted by the optimized model were 0.959 and 0.835, respectively, indicating a good predictive effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for in the current period are mainly located in Southwest China, which are wider compared to the actual habitats. (2) Jackknife testing showed that the lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev), seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4), and surface calcium carbonate content (T-CACO) are the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of . (3) From the last interglacial period to the current period, the total suitable area of showed a decreasing trend; the distribution points of populations in mid-Holocene period may be the origin of the postglacial population, and Southwest China may be its glacial biological refuge. (4) Compared with the current period, the total suitable area ranges of in China in the 2050s and 2070s decreased, and the centroid location of its total fitness area all migrated to the northwest, with the largest migration distance in 2070s under the SSPs 7.0 climate scenario. Temperature was the principal factor influencing the geographical distribution of . With global warming, the range of suitable areas will show a shrinking trend, with a shift toward higher-latitude regions. Ex situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its germplasm resources.
探索末次间冰期以来 Oliv. 的地理分布格局变化过程及其主要影响因素，可为该物种的有效保护和管理提供科学依据。利用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型构建了末次间冰期（LIG）、末次盛冰期（LGM）、全新世中期（MID）以及当前和未来（2050年代和2070年代）等不同时期 Oliv. 的潜在分布区。在探讨主导环境因子对其分布模型影响的前提下，定量分析了不同生态气候情景下 Oliv. 适宜区的变化情况。（1）优化模型预测的AUC和TSS值分别为0.959和0.835，表明MaxEnt模型预测效果良好；当前时期 Oliv. 的潜在适宜区主要位于中国西南部，与实际栖息地相比范围更广。（2）刀切法检验表明，最冷月最低温度（Bio6）、海拔（Elev）、温度季节变化系数（Bio4）和地表碳酸钙含量（T-CACO）是影响 Oliv. 分布的主导环境因子。（3）从末次间冰期到当前时期，Oliv. 的总适宜区呈减少趋势；全新世中期 Oliv. 种群的分布点可能是冰后期种群的起源地，中国西南部可能是其冰期生物避难所。（4）与当前时期相比，2050年代和2070年代中国 Oliv. 的总适宜区范围减小，其总适宜区质心位置均向西北迁移，在共享社会经济路径（SSPs）7.0气候情景下，2070年代迁移距离最大。温度是影响 Oliv. 地理分布的主要因素。随着全球变暖，Oliv. 适宜区范围将呈缩小趋势，并向高纬度地区转移。可采取迁地保护措施来保存其种质资源。
