Khromova S, Villalba Méndez G, Eckelman M J, Herreros-Cantis P, Langemeyer J
Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain.
Department of Chemical, Biological and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain.
Ecol Indic. 2025 Apr;173:113334. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113334.
In the context of urban population growth and climate change, and ever greater number of people are anticipated to face severe risks associated with extreme climate events; major ones are due to stormwater-related hazards. This study offers novel understanding of the complex nature of water-related risks in urban geographies by employing a Social-Ecological-Technological Systems (SETS) framework to assess vulnerabilities. Hydrology-informed urban risk index was developed, quantifying seventeen indicators from historical and modeled data on sewer overflow and flood events. The spatially explicit SETS-based approach identifies high-risk communities and hotspots where multiple vulnerabilities intersect and can serve as a valuable tool for guiding policy and decision-making to support more resilient urban futures. Our findings reveal that social vulnerability plays a critical role in determining the overall risk (R = 0.4), with the greatest impacts imposed on socially vulnerable communities. However, insights from the ecological (R = 0.2) and technological (R = 0.1) domains provide essential guidance for future risk reduction strategies-such as upgrading outdated sewer infrastructure and exploring green space potential for run-off mitigation. The framework proposed is generalizable to other cities facing similar environmental challenges, highlighting its potential as a foundational tool for policymaking to reduce risks associated with extreme climate events.
在城市人口增长和气候变化的背景下，预计会有越来越多的人面临与极端气候事件相关的严峻风险；其中主要风险是由雨水相关的危害造成的。本研究通过采用社会-生态-技术系统（SETS）框架来评估脆弱性，对城市地区与水相关风险的复杂性质提供了全新的认识。开发了水文信息城市风险指数，从下水道溢流和洪水事件的历史数据及模型数据中量化了17项指标。基于SETS的空间明确方法识别出了多个脆弱性交叉的高风险社区和热点地区，可作为指导政策制定和决策的宝贵工具，以支持更具韧性的城市未来。我们的研究结果表明，社会脆弱性在决定总体风险方面起着关键作用（R = 0.4），对社会脆弱社区的影响最大。然而，来自生态领域（R = 0.2）和技术领域（R = 0.1）的见解为未来的风险降低策略提供了重要指导——例如升级过时的下水道基础设施以及探索绿地在缓解径流方面的潜力。所提出的框架可推广到面临类似环境挑战的其他城市，凸显了其作为政策制定基础工具以降低与极端气候事件相关风险的潜力。
