Progressing towards the 2030 health-related SDGs in ASEAN: A systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) articulate an ambitious global agenda and set of targets to achieve by 2030. Among the health-related SDGs, many formidable challenges remain in settings like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) which face wide-ranging social, economic and health inequalities. In advance of the 2030 horizon, charting the trajectory of the health SDGs is critical for informing policy and programmatic course corrections to advance health and well-being among ASEAN's 10 member countries with its 667 million people.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 and surveillance data to identify 27 health-related SDG indicators. The indicators were classified into 7 thematic areas: (i) nutrition, (ii) maternal, child and reproductive health (MCH), (iii) infectious diseases, (iv) non-communicable diseases (NCDs), (v) environmental health, (vi) universal health coverage (UHC), and (vii) road injuries. We developed an attainment index ranging from 0 to 100 for each SDG indicator by referencing the SDG targets and projected their progress to 2030. We find an overall positive progress towards the health-related SDG targets in ASEAN from 1990 to 2030. At the aggregate level by 2030, 2 member countries, Singapore and Brunei, are projected to achieve their targets (attainment score ≥ 90). At a wider regional level, ASEAN is projected to make substantial progress in nutrition, MCH, and UHC, with a majority of countries projected to come close to or achieve their targets. However, progress is projected to be slower in the areas of reducing the incidence of infectious disease (i.e., HIV and AIDs, hepatitis B, TB, and neglected tropical diseases), NCD-related mortality and its risk factors (i.e., harmful alcohol use and smoking), environment-related mortality and its risk factors (i.e., unsafe water and poor hygiene, and air pollution), and road injuries. Substantial disparities are identified in the region, with Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand generally performing better than elsewhere. A limitation of our study was its reliance on historical trends which may not fully capture future political, social, or technological changes.

CONCLUSIONS

As a regional bloc, ASEAN faces persistent challenges in achieving health-related SDG targets by 2030, with unequal progress between countries. Moreover, epidemiological transitions and worsening environmental threats further compound potential gains. At the country level, efforts to enhance health system financing, quality and equity will need to be coupled with wider approaches that address structural drivers of disease. Furthermore, coordinated regional efforts will be essential to effectively respond to emerging threats posed by pollution and environmental risks.