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用于多维家禽数据可解释预测的N-Beats架构。

N-Beats architecture for explainable forecasting of multi-dimensional poultry data.

作者信息

Kaur Baljinder, Rakhra Manik, Sharma Nonita, Prashar Deepak, Mrsic Leo, Khan Arfat Ahmad, Kadry Seifedine

机构信息

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, Punjab, India.

Department of Information Technology, Indira Gandhi Delhi Technical University for Women, New Delhi, India.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Apr 24;20(4):e0320979. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0320979. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0320979
PMID:40273069
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12021150/
Abstract

The agricultural economy heavily relies on poultry production, making accurate forecasting of poultry data crucial for optimizing revenue, streamlining resource utilization, and maximizing productivity. This research introduces a novel application of the N-BEATS architecture for multi-dimensional poultry data forecasting with enhanced interpretability through an integrated Explainable AI (XAI) framework. Leveraging its advanced capabilities in time series modeling, N-BEATS is applied to predict multiple facets of poultry disease diagnostics using a multivariate dataset comprising key environmental parameters. The methodology empowers decision-making in poultry farm management by providing transparent and interpretable forecasts. Experimental results demonstrate that N-BEATS outperforms conventional deep learning models, including LSTM, GRU, RNN, and CNN, across various error metrics, achieving MAE of 0.172, RMSE of 0.313, MSLE of 0.042, R-squared of 0.034, and RMSLE of 0.204. The positive R-squared value indicates the model's robustness against underfitting and overfitting, surpassing the performance of other models with negative R-squared values. This study establishes N-BEATS as a superior and interpretable solution for complex, multi-dimensional forecasting challenges in poultry production, with significant implications for enhancing predictive analytics in agriculture.

摘要

农业经济严重依赖家禽生产,因此准确预测家禽数据对于优化收益、提高资源利用效率和实现生产力最大化至关重要。本研究介绍了N-BEATS架构在多维家禽数据预测中的一种新应用,通过集成的可解释人工智能(XAI)框架增强了可解释性。利用其在时间序列建模方面的先进能力,N-BEATS被应用于使用包含关键环境参数的多变量数据集来预测家禽疾病诊断的多个方面。该方法通过提供透明且可解释的预测,增强了家禽养殖场管理中的决策能力。实验结果表明,在各种误差指标上,N-BEATS优于传统深度学习模型,包括LSTM、GRU、RNN和CNN,实现了平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.172、均方根误差(RMSE)为0.313、平均对称对数误差(MSLE)为0.042、决定系数(R平方)为0.034以及均方根对称对数误差(RMSLE)为0.204。正的R平方值表明该模型对欠拟合和过拟合具有鲁棒性,超过了其他具有负R平方值的模型的性能。本研究确立了N-BEATS作为家禽生产中复杂多维预测挑战的一种优越且可解释的解决方案,对加强农业中的预测分析具有重要意义。

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本文引用的文献

1
Towards Early Poultry Health Prediction through Non-Invasive and Computer Vision-Based Dropping Classification.通过基于计算机视觉的非侵入式粪便分类实现家禽早期健康预测
Animals (Basel). 2023 Sep 27;13(19):3041. doi: 10.3390/ani13193041.
2
Epidemiological investigation of morbidity and mortality of improved breeds of chickens in small holder poultry farms in selected districts of Sidama Region, Ethiopia.埃塞俄比亚锡达马地区部分地区小型家禽养殖场改良品种鸡的发病率和死亡率的流行病学调查
Heliyon. 2022 Aug 3;8(8):e10074. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10074. eCollection 2022 Aug.
3
Comparison of neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series (N-BEATS) and recurrent neural networks for heart dysfunction classification.
基于可解释时间序列的神经基础扩展分析(N-BEATS)与循环神经网络在心脏功能障碍分类中的比较。
Physiol Meas. 2022 Jun 28;43(6). doi: 10.1088/1361-6579/ac6e55.
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Poult Sci. 2021 Jun;100(6):101122. doi: 10.1016/j.psj.2021.101122. Epub 2021 Mar 11.
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Detecting and Predicting Emerging Disease in Poultry With the Implementation of New Technologies and Big Data: A Focus on Avian Influenza Virus.通过新技术和大数据的应用检测和预测家禽中的新发疾病:以禽流感病毒为重点
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