Cong Wei, Li Jia, Zhang Yi, Huang Taifu, Gao Shuaishuai, Yu Jianhua, Zhang Yuguang, Li Diqiang
Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Conservation, State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing, 100091, China.
Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 25;15(1):14583. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-98909-w.
Climate change is recognized as one of the greatest challenges to global biodiversity. The endangered snow leopard (Panthera uncia), an apex predator in high-altitude mountain ecosystems, serves as an important indicator of ecological health. Understanding the impacts of climate change on snow leopard distribution patterns is essential for developing effective conservation strategies. Based on the BIOMOD2 model, this study assesses the current distribution of suitable habitats and project future changes under various climate scenarios, as well as evaluates the protection gap and corridor construction in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. The results indicated the total area of suitable habitat for snow leopard in Xinjiang is approximately 686,200 km under the current climate conditions. The area of suitable habitat remains relatively stable or slightly increases under low emissions scenarios, while predictions show a gradual decline under moderate and high emissions scenarios. Currently, suitable habitats are fragmented, with low connectivity among patches, posing threats to the snow leopard population. Vulnerable habitats are primarily located in the Altai, northwestern Junggar Basin, and the central Tianshan Mountains. Potential future suitable areas are projected emerge in the Kunlun Mountains. It is suggested that greater focus be placed on unprotected climate refugia, enhancing the connectivity of habitat corridors, fostering cross-border cooperation, and implementing long-term monitoring efforts. This study provides valuable insights for conservation strategies aimed at mitigating the impacts of climate change on snow leopard populations in Xinjiang, China.
气候变化被认为是全球生物多样性面临的最大挑战之一。濒危的雪豹（Panthera uncia）是高海拔山区生态系统中的顶级捕食者，是生态健康的重要指标。了解气候变化对雪豹分布模式的影响对于制定有效的保护策略至关重要。基于BIOMOD2模型，本研究评估了当前适宜栖息地的分布情况，并预测了在各种气候情景下未来的变化，同时评估了中国新疆维吾尔自治区的保护缺口和廊道建设。结果表明，在当前气候条件下，新疆雪豹适宜栖息地总面积约为686,200平方千米。在低排放情景下，适宜栖息地面积相对稳定或略有增加，而在中高排放情景下，预测显示面积将逐渐下降。目前，适宜栖息地破碎化，斑块间连通性低，对雪豹种群构成威胁。脆弱栖息地主要位于阿尔泰山、准噶尔盆地西北部和天山中部。预计未来昆仑山脉将出现潜在的适宜区域。建议更加关注未受保护的气候避难所，加强栖息地廊道的连通性，促进跨境合作，并开展长期监测工作。本研究为旨在减轻气候变化对中国新疆雪豹种群影响的保护策略提供了有价值的见解。
