1990年至2021年中国、日本和韩国重度抑郁症的疾病负担、归因风险因素及其到2035年的预测。

Disease burden and attributable risk factors of major depressive disorder in China, Japan, and South Korea from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2035.

作者信息

Wang Yifan, Zhu Jingwen, Zhou Jihong

机构信息

The Seventh Clinical College of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, China.

The Fourth Clinical College of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, China.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2025 Apr 14;13:1510091. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1510091. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1510091

PMID:40297030

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12034540/

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the disease burden of major depressive disorder (MDD) and risk factors associated with MDD in China, Japan, and South Korea(CJK) from 1990 to 2021, to explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on the disease burden of MDD, and to predict the burden of MDD in CJK from 2021 to 2035.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD) database was searched to collect the incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors of MDD in CJK. The respondents were selected from the Global, China, Japan, and South Korea. The respondents' disease was major depressive disorder. The respondents' gender was male, female, and both. The time was selected from 1990 to 2021. The age was selected from the whole age group (less than 5 years old to over 95 years old). Trends in MDD burden from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0. Age-period-cohort (APC) analyses were performed using the APC Web Tool. Bayesian age-period-cohort analyses (BAPC) were performed using R4.4.1.

RESULTS

Japan had the highest burden of MDD, followed by South Korea, and China had the lowest burden of MDD; The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of MDD burden indicators in China was less than 0, while in Japan and South Korea it was greater than 0. In 2021, middle-aged people aged 55-59 years had the highest burden of MDD in China, while in Japan and South Korea, young people aged 20-29 years had the highest burden of MDD, and the burden of MDD was higher among females than males in CJK from 1990 to 2021; APC analyses showed that the net drifts, local drifts, and RR values of the MDD burden indicators in CJK in terms of age, period, and cohort effects were closely related to the economic forms and aging populations; MDD had 3 levels and 5 risk factors; The burden of MDD in China would be in a decreasing trend between 2021 and 2035, and the burden of MDD in Japan and South Korea would be in a decreasing trend between 2021 and 2022, and an increasing trend between 2022 and 2035.

CONCLUSION

There are both commonalities and differences in the burden of MDD in CJK, while the current burden of MDD in CJK is lower than the global average. Compared with Japan and South Korea China has a lower burden of MDD, but all three countries still face enormous challenges in the prevention and control of MDD.

摘要

目的

分析1990年至2021年中国、日本和韩国（CJK）中重度抑郁症（MDD）的疾病负担及相关危险因素，探讨年龄、时期和队列效应对MDD疾病负担的影响，并预测2021年至2035年CJK中MDD的负担。

方法

检索全球疾病负担2021（GBD）数据库，收集CJK中MDD的发病率、患病率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）及危险因素。受访者选自全球、中国、日本和韩国。受访者的疾病为中重度抑郁症。受访者的性别为男性、女性和两者皆有。时间选取1990年至2021年。年龄选取全年龄组（小于5岁至95岁以上）。使用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0分析1990年至2021年MDD负担趋势。使用APC网络工具进行年龄-时期-队列（APC）分析。使用R4.4.1进行贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析（BAPC）。

结果

日本的MDD负担最高，其次是韩国，中国的MDD负担最低；中国MDD负担指标的年均变化百分比（AAPC）小于0，而日本和韩国则大于0。2021年，中国55-59岁的中年人MDD负担最高，而在日本和韩国，20-29岁的年轻人MDD负担最高，1990年至2021年CJK中女性的MDD负担高于男性；APC分析表明，CJK中MDD负担指标在年龄、时期和队列效应方面的净漂移、局部漂移和RR值与经济形式和人口老龄化密切相关；MDD有3个水平和5个危险因素；2021年至2035年中国MDD负担呈下降趋势，2021年至2022年日本和韩国MDD负担呈下降趋势，2022年至2035年呈上升趋势。