Bousfield Christopher G, Morton Oscar, Lindenmayer David B, Pellegrini Adam F A, Hethcoat Matthew G, Edwards David P
Department of Plant Sciences and Centre for Global Wood Security, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Nat Commun. 2025 May 6;16(1):4204. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59272-6.
Timber is worth $1.5 trillion US Dollars annually with demand rising, but wildfires increasingly threaten production. Plantations occupy 3% of forests globally and produce 33% of the world's timber, but a critical question is whether they are more vulnerable to stand-replacing wildfires than natural production forests. We combine forest management and wildfire data to estimate that 15.7 (14.7-16.7) million hectares of natural production forests and 1.4 (1.26-1.64) million hectares of plantations suffered stand-replacing wildfires between 2015 and 2022. Using statistical matching for 17 countries representing 50% of global production and 75% of burned timber-producing forest, we find plantations in temperate regions were twice as likely to suffer stand-replacing wildfires than natural production forests, including in vital timber-producing nations like China and Russia. Plantations in tropical regions showed no clear effect, with national differences ranging from 75% lower to 58% higher risk of burning. Given increasing global reliance on plantation timber, preventing wildfires through landscape-level planning, fire management, and increased plantation diversity is critical for global wood security.
木材每年价值1.5万亿美元，且需求不断上升，但野火对木材生产的威胁日益增大。人工林占全球森林面积的3%，却生产了全球33%的木材，然而一个关键问题是，相较于天然生产林，人工林是否更容易遭受能更替林分的野火。我们结合森林管理和野火数据估算得出，2015年至2022年间，有1570（1470 - 1670）万公顷的天然生产林和140（126 - 164）万公顷的人工林遭受了能更替林分的野火。通过对占全球木材产量50%以及木材生产林火灾面积75%的17个国家进行统计匹配，我们发现，在温带地区，人工林遭受能更替林分野火的可能性是天然生产林的两倍，在中国和俄罗斯等重要木材生产国亦是如此。热带地区的人工林则未表现出明显影响，各国之间野火风险差异从低75%到高58%不等。鉴于全球对人工林木材的依赖日益增加，通过景观层面规划、火灾管理以及增加人工林多样性来预防野火，对全球木材安全至关重要。
