Estrada Francisco, Lupi Veronica, Botzen W J Wouter, Tol Richard S J
Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Nat Commun. 2025 May 6;16(1):4193. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59466-y.
The social cost of carbon (SCC) serves as a concise measure of climate change's economic impact, often reported at the global and country level. SCC values tend to be disproportionately high for less-developed, populous countries. Previous studies do not distinguish between urban and non-urban areas and ignore the synergies between local and global warming. High exposure and concurrent socioenvironmental problems exacerbate climate change risks in cities. Using a spatially explicit integrated assessment model, the SCC is estimated at USD$187/tCO, rising to USD$490/tCO when including urban heat island (UHI) warming. Urban SCC dominates, representing about 78%-93% of the global SCC, due to both urban exposure and the UHI. This finding implies that the highest global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitters also experience the largest economic losses. Global cities have substantial leverage on climate policy at the national and global scales and strong incentives for a swift transition to a low-carbon economy.
碳的社会成本（SCC）是衡量气候变化经济影响的一个简明指标，通常在全球和国家层面进行报告。对于欠发达的人口大国而言，SCC值往往高得不成比例。以往的研究没有区分城市和非城市地区，并且忽略了局部变暖和全球变暖之间的协同作用。高暴露程度和并发的社会环境问题加剧了城市的气候变化风险。使用一个空间明确的综合评估模型，估计SCC为187美元/吨二氧化碳，若将城市热岛（UHI）变暖纳入计算，则升至490美元/吨二氧化碳。由于城市暴露和城市热岛效应，城市SCC占主导地位，约占全球SCC的78%-93%。这一发现意味着全球最大的温室气体（GHG）排放国也遭受了最大的经济损失。全球城市在国家和全球层面的气候政策方面具有巨大影响力，并且有强烈的动机迅速向低碳经济转型。
