Drake John M, Wares John P, Byers James E, Anderson Jill T
Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA.
Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2025 May;28(5):e70134. doi: 10.1111/ele.70134.
Species' distributions are changing around the planet as a result of global climate change. Most research has focused on shifts in mean climate conditions, leaving the effects of increased environmental variability comparatively underexplored. This paper proposes two new macroecological hypotheses-the variability damping hypothesis and the variability adaptation hypothesis-to understand how ecological dynamics and evolutionary history could influence biogeographic patterns being forced by contemporary large-scale climate change across all major ecosystems. The variability damping hypothesis predicts that distributions of species living in deep water environments will be least affected by increasing climate-driven temperature variability compared with species in nearshore, intertidal and terrestrial environments. The variability adaptation hypothesis predicts the opposite. Where available, we discuss how the existing evidence aligns with these hypotheses and propose ways in which they may be empirically tested.
由于全球气候变化，地球上物种的分布正在发生变化。大多数研究都集中在平均气候条件的变化上，而对环境变异性增加的影响相对研究不足。本文提出了两个新的宏观生态假说——变异性阻尼假说和变异性适应假说，以了解生态动态和进化历史如何影响所有主要生态系统中当代大规模气候变化所导致的生物地理格局。变异性阻尼假说预测，与近岸、潮间带和陆地环境中的物种相比，生活在深水环境中的物种分布受气候驱动的温度变异性增加的影响最小。变异性适应假说则做出相反的预测。在可行的情况下，我们讨论了现有证据如何与这些假说相符，并提出了对它们进行实证检验的方法。
