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使用灰雁优化算法和机器学习增强电动汽车一氧化碳排放预测

Enhancing CO emissions prediction for electric vehicles using Greylag Goose Optimization and machine learning.

作者信息

Saqr Ahmed El-Sayed, Saraya Mohamed S, El-Kenawy El-Sayed M

机构信息

Computer Engineering and Control Systems Department, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Mansoura, 35516, Egypt.

Department of Communications and Electronics, Delta Higher Institute of Engineering and Technology, Mansoura, 35111, Egypt.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 May 13;15(1):16612. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-99472-0.

Abstract

Electric vehicle (EV) [Formula: see text] emissions should be predicted and mitigated, which requires lowering EV emissions in line with global sustainability goals. Such accurate forecasting supports policymakers and other industry stakeholders make marketing decisions to reduce environmental impacts and optimize resource utilization. In this research, a novel Greylag Goose Optimization (GGO) algorithm is integrated with a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model to improve [Formula: see text] emissions prediction. Finally, the study does a comparative analysis with some established optimization algorithms in hyperparameter tuning regarding an improved accuracy model. In addition, statistical analyses such as ANOVA, sensitivity analysis, and T-test were used to substantiate performance differentiation between models. For the optimal model, the GGO-optimized MLP significantly outperformed baseline models and other optimization techniques, having minimum error metrics such as correlation coefficient and RMSE and an MSE of [Formula: see text]. As a result, the emissions forecast is very reliable. The proposed approach provides actionable insights for environmental policies, EV adoption strategies, and infrastructure planning. The model enables stakeholders to achieve climate objectives, optimize EV charging systems and foster the creation of sustainable transportation systems, as said accurate emissions estimates are enabled.

摘要

电动汽车(EV)的排放应该得到预测和缓解,这需要根据全球可持续发展目标降低电动汽车的排放。这种准确的预测有助于政策制定者和其他行业利益相关者做出营销决策,以减少环境影响并优化资源利用。在本研究中,一种新颖的灰雁优化(GGO)算法与多层感知器(MLP)模型相结合,以改进排放预测。最后,该研究在超参数调整方面与一些既定的优化算法进行了比较分析,以建立一个精度更高的模型。此外,还使用了方差分析、敏感性分析和T检验等统计分析方法来证实模型之间的性能差异。对于最优模型,经GGO优化的MLP显著优于基线模型和其他优化技术,具有最小的误差指标,如相关系数和均方根误差(RMSE),以及[公式:见原文]的均方误差(MSE)。因此,排放预测非常可靠。所提出的方法为环境政策、电动汽车采用策略和基础设施规划提供了可操作的见解。该模型使利益相关者能够实现气候目标,优化电动汽车充电系统,并促进可持续交通系统的创建,因为能够进行准确的排放估计。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bbdc/12075672/7abc35e9c7d0/41598_2025_99472_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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