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丙泊酚相关性高甘油三酯血症:基于机器学习的预测工具的开发与多中心验证

Propofol-associated Hypertriglyceridemia: Development and Multicenter Validation of a Machine-Learning-Based Prediction Tool.

作者信息

Deng Jiawen, Heybati Kiyan, Poudel Keshav, Xie Guozhen, Zuberi Eric, Simha Vinaya, Yadav Hemang

机构信息

Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.

Mayo Clinic Alix School of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.

出版信息

J Intensive Care Med. 2025 May 15:8850666251342559. doi: 10.1177/08850666251342559.

Abstract

To develop and validate an explainable machine learning (ML) tool to help clinicians predict the risk of propofol-associated hypertriglyceridemia in critically ill patients receiving propofol sedation. Patients from 11 intensive care units (ICUs) across five Mayo Clinic hospitals were included if they met the following criteria: a) ≥ 18 years of age, b) received propofol infusion while on invasive mechanical ventilation for ≥24 h, and c) had a triglyceride level measured. The primary outcome was hypertriglyceridemia (triglyceride >400 mg/dL) onset within 10 days of propofol initiation. Both COVID-inclusive and COVID-independent modeling pipelines were developed to ensure applicability post-pandemic. Decision thresholds were chosen to maintain model sensitivity >80%. Nested leave-one-site-out cross-validation (LOSO-CV) was used to externally evaluate pipeline performance. Model explainability was assessed using permutation importance and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Among 3922 included patients, 769 (19.6%) developed propofol-associated hypertriglyceridemia, and 879 (22.4%) had COVID-19 at ICU admission. During nested LOSO-CV, the COVID-inclusive pipeline achieved an average AUC-ROC of 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-0.72), while the COVID-independent pipeline achieved an average AUC-ROC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.68-0.70). Age, initial propofol dose, and BMI were the top three most important features in both models. We developed an explainable ML-based tool with acceptable predictive performance for assessing the risk of propofol-associated hypertriglyceridemia in ICU patients. This tool can aid clinicians in identifying at-risk patients to guide triglyceride monitoring and optimize sedative selection.

摘要

开发并验证一种可解释的机器学习(ML)工具,以帮助临床医生预测接受丙泊酚镇静的重症患者发生丙泊酚相关性高甘油三酯血症的风险。来自梅奥诊所五家医院的11个重症监护病房(ICU)的患者,如果符合以下标准则纳入研究:a)年龄≥18岁,b)在有创机械通气期间接受丙泊酚输注≥24小时,c)测量过甘油三酯水平。主要结局是丙泊酚开始使用后10天内发生高甘油三酯血症(甘油三酯>400mg/dL)。开发了包含新冠和不包含新冠的建模流程,以确保大流行后仍适用。选择决策阈值以维持模型敏感性>80%。采用嵌套留一中心交叉验证(LOSO-CV)对流程性能进行外部评估。使用排列重要性和SHapley加性解释(SHAP)评估模型可解释性。在3922例纳入患者中,769例(19.6%)发生丙泊酚相关性高甘油三酯血症,879例(22.4%)在ICU入院时患有新冠。在嵌套LOSO-CV期间,包含新冠的流程平均AUC-ROC为0.71(95%置信区间[CI]0.70-0.72),而不包含新冠的流程平均AUC-ROC为0.69(95%CI0.68-0.70)。年龄、初始丙泊酚剂量和BMI是两个模型中最重要的三个特征。我们开发了一种基于可解释ML的工具,用于评估ICU患者丙泊酚相关性高甘油三酯血症风险,其预测性能可接受。该工具可帮助临床医生识别高危患者,以指导甘油三酯监测并优化镇静剂选择。

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